Mantova 2–0 Sampdoria
What the chances were worth
The brain read
An even contest on the shot picture — shots 10–13, 5–2 on target, 5–9 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Mantova 3-4-2-1
- 5 B. Tomašević (D)
- 8 R. Ilie (F)
- 9 E. Gliozzi (F)
- 19 F. Galuppini (F)
- 22 F. Bardi (G)
- 25 L. Ignacchiti (M)
- 27 A. Castellini (D)
- 29 S. Cella (D)
- 41 Jonathan Silva (M)
- 50 F. Benaissa-Yahia (M)
- 80 R. Kouda (M)
Bench: L. Gemello, Federico Chinetti, D. Bragantini, E. Košpo, Tommaso Del Lungo, I. Cajazzo, S. Keita, F. Paoletti, D. Wieser, J. Mboyo, V. Vlahović, M. Spinaccè
Sampdoria 4-3-3
- 1 P. Vindahl (G)
- 3 S. Gartenmann (D)
- 6 L. Henderson (M)
- 7 M. Cicconi (D)
- 10 L. Insigne (F)
- 11 T. Begić (F)
- 15 F. Delli Carri (D)
- 16 Y. Verschaeren (M)
- 29 A. Di Pardo (D)
- 45 A. Makoumbou (M)
- 99 G. Tutino (F)
Bench: Yann Karamoh, T. Lauritsen, K. Mbabu, A. Ferrari, L. Ravanelli, O. Abildgaard, D. Sinani
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Mantova or draw | 1.31 | 71.3% | -1.7 pts |
| Double chance Sampdoria or draw | 1.60 | 58.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Mantova | 1.61 | 57.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sampdoria | 2.21 | 42.1% | +2.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 71.0% | +3.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.04 | 46.2% | +3.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.53 | 26.4% | +2.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 52.9% | +3.5 pts |
| Mantova over 1.5 team goals | 2.28 | 41.2% | +0.5 pts |
| Sampdoria over 1.5 team goals | 2.92 | 32.0% | +3.3 pts |
| Mantova clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -3.8 pts |
| Sampdoria clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | -2.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.81 · 1-0 7.16 · 0-0 8.29 · 0-1 8.90 · 2-1 8.92
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 26 | Mantova | 2-1 | Sampdoria |
| 02 Nov 25 | Sampdoria | 0-1 | Mantova |