RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SV
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made RB Leipzig to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 58% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
RB Leipzig carried the greater threat — shots 19–10, 6–4 on target, 12–7 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only. RB Leipzig held 64% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
RB Leipzig 4-3-3
- 4 W. Orbán (D)
- 6 E. Banzuzi (M)
- 7 A. Nusa (F)
- 8 A. Ouédraogo (M)
- 10 B. Gruda (F)
- 21 N. El Aynaoui (M)
- 22 D. Raum (D)
- 23 C. Lukeba (D)
- 26 M. Vandevoordt (G)
- 27 T. Gomis (F)
- 39 B. Henrichs (D)
Bench: Rômulo, M. Estève, Max Finkgräfe, Marc Guiu, Ø. Nyland, A. MaksimoviÄ, C. Nkunku, R. Baku, N. Seiwald
Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
- 1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes (G)
- 3 D. Møller Wolfe (M)
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga (M)
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi (M)
- 11 A. Grønbæk (M)
- 15 Y. Poulsen (F)
- 21 N. Remberg (M)
- 23 J. Torunarigha (D)
- 24 N. Capaldo (D)
- 27 P. Daka (M)
- 43 S. Nandja (D)
Bench: M. Adeline, B. Jatta, L. Lemke, T. Moffi, B. Nadir, W. Omari, Otto Emerson Stange, S. Tangvik, Fábio Vieira
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance RB Leipzig or draw | 1.08 | 87.6% | +1.6 pts |
| Double chance Hamburger SV or draw | 3.23 | 29.3% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.14 | 83.2% | +1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — RB Leipzig | 1.11 | 84.5% | +2.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hamburger SV | 6.06 | 15.5% | -2.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.07 | 87.4% | +3.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.32 | 71.6% | +5.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.86 | 51.5% | +6.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.52 | 61.2% | +3.3 pts |
| RB Leipzig over 1.5 team goals | 1.25 | 74.7% | +5.2 pts |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 team goals | 3.19 | 29.4% | +2.2 pts |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 11.00 | 8.7% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 8.54 · 2-0 9.11 · 3-1 9.70 · 3-0 10.02 · 1-1 10.87
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 13:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar 26 | Hamburger SV | 1-2 | RB Leipzig |
| 18 Oct 25 | RB Leipzig | 2-1 | Hamburger SV |