San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston Dynamo
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.38–1.02.
The brain read
The xG read 1.4–1 in San Jose Earthquakes's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 10–11 overall and 1–5 on target went Houston Dynamo's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Houston Dynamo held 62% of the ball. Houston Dynamo's finishing let them down — 0 from 1 xG despite 5 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.