Sassuolo 3–2 Juventus
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.67–1.00.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Juventus to win (47%); it finished with Sassuolo to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 25% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.7–1, shots 10–18 with 6–8 on target. Juventus got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 6). Sassuolo's finishing ran hot — 3 from 0.7 xG, 6 of 10 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Sassuolo 4-3-3
- 3 Josh Doig (D)
- 10 Domenico Berardi (F)
- 16 Fedde Leysen (D)
- 18 Nemanja Matić (M)
- 21 Jay Idzes (D)
- 35 Luca Lipani (M)
- 42 Kristian Thorstvedt (M)
- 45 Armand Laurienté (F)
- 46 Simone Cinquegrano (D)
- 49 Arijanet Murić (G)
- 94 Sebastiano Esposito (F)
Bench: Stefano Turati, Lorenzo Nyarko, Ignace Van der Brempt, Cas Odenthal, Duje Ćaleta-Car, Vasilije Adžić, Andrea Ghion, Rafael Obrador, Benjamín Domínguez, Ibrahim Sulemana, Darryl Bakola, Kieron Bowie, Laurs Skjellerup, Nicholas Pierini
Juventus 4-2-3-1
- 2 Zeki Çelik (D)
- 3 Gleison Bremer (D)
- 7 Francisco Conceição (M)
- 8 Teun Koopmeiners (M)
- 9 Randal Kolo Muani (F)
- 12 Douglas Luiz (M)
- 15 Pierre Kalulu (D)
- 17 Kerim Alajbegović (M)
- 25 Guglielmo Vicario (G)
- 26 Jhon Lucumí (D)
- 31 Nicolás González (M)
Bench: Carlo Pinsoglio, Kamil Grabara, Federico Gatti, Lloyd Kelly, Daniele Rugani, Augusto Owusu, Filippo Pagnucco, Pape Matar Sarr, Nick Woltemade, Justin Oboavwoduo, Edon Zhegrova
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sassuolo or draw | 2.25 | 41.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance Juventus or draw | 1.16 | 81.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sassuolo | 3.86 | 24.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Juventus | 1.22 | 75.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 76.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 53.3% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.90 | 32.4% | +1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.77 | 52.7% | +1.7 pts |
| Sassuolo over 1.5 team goals | 3.71 | 25.3% | +1.2 pts |
| Juventus over 1.5 team goals | 1.68 | 55.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Sassuolo clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Juventus clean sheet | 2.38 | 39.1% | -3.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-1 6.96 · 1-1 7.16 · 1-2 7.72 · 0-2 7.80 · 0-0 11.23
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Juventus | 1-1 | Sassuolo |
| 06 Jan 26 | Sassuolo | 0-3 | Juventus |