Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint Germain
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 45% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Paris Saint Germain carried the greater threat — shots 16–15, 5–7 on target, 8–9 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
- 1 E. Selvik (G)
- 2 B. Locko (D)
- 4 G. Lloris (D)
- 8 H. Magnetti (M)
- 9 P. Mboup (M)
- 10 G. Versini (M)
- 13 J. Chotard (M)
- 19 L. Ajorque (F)
- 23 K. Doumbia (M)
- 70 K. Lala (D)
- 71 R. Le Guen (D)
Bench: L. Zogbe, L. Tousart, M. Patouillet, J. Nonge Boende, D. N´Guessan, Enzo Monchatre, L. C. Laine M., Ibrahim Yayiya Kante, J. Bourgault
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
- 2 A. Hakimi (D)
- 5 Marquinhos (D)
- 7 K. Kvaratskhelia (F)
- 9 Ferran Torres (F)
- 10 O. Dembélé (F)
- 17 Vitinha (M)
- 25 Nuno Mendes (D)
- 33 W. Zaïre-Emery (M)
- 39 M. Safonov (G)
- 51 W. Pacho (D)
- 87 João Neves (M)
Bench: L. Digne, L. Chevalier, M. Akliouche, D. Doué, Pedro Fernández, M. Godts, L. Hernández, Beraldo, Fabián Ruiz
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw | 3.95 | 24.0% | -5.0 pts |
| Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw | 1.05 | 90.6% | +2.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.11 | 85.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stade Brestois 29 | 7.84 | 12.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris Saint Germain | 1.07 | 88.0% | +3.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 86.0% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 69.1% | +3.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.95 | 49.0% | +3.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.74 | 53.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 over 1.5 team goals | 4.29 | 21.7% | -2.7 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 team goals | 1.23 | 75.4% | +4.5 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet | 13.00 | 7.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 2.20 | 42.4% | +2.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-2 7.64 · 0-3 8.20 · 1-2 8.82 · 1-3 9.73 · 0-1 10.09
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 26 | Paris Saint Germain | 1-0 | Stade Brestois 29 |
| 25 Oct 25 | Stade Brestois 29 | 0-3 | Paris Saint Germain |