Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint Germain
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.24–1.16.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 45% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.2–1.2, shots 16–15 with 5–7 on target. Stade Brestois 29's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.2 xG despite 5 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
- 1 E. Selvik (G)
- 2 B. Locko (D)
- 4 G. Lloris (D)
- 8 H. Magnetti (M)
- 9 P. Mboup (M)
- 10 G. Versini (M)
- 13 J. Chotard (M)
- 19 L. Ajorque (F)
- 23 K. Doumbia (M)
- 70 K. Lala (D)
- 71 R. Le Guen (D)
Bench: L. Zogbe, L. Tousart, M. Patouillet, J. Nonge Boende, D. N´Guessan, Enzo Monchatre, L. C. Laine M., Ibrahim Yayiya Kante, J. Bourgault
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
- 2 A. Hakimi (D)
- 5 Marquinhos (D)
- 7 K. Kvaratskhelia (F)
- 9 Ferran Torres (F)
- 10 O. Dembélé (F)
- 17 Vitinha (M)
- 25 Nuno Mendes (D)
- 33 W. Zaïre-Emery (M)
- 39 M. Safonov (G)
- 51 W. Pacho (D)
- 87 João Neves (M)
Bench: L. Digne, L. Chevalier, M. Akliouche, D. Doué, Pedro Fernández, M. Godts, L. Hernández, Beraldo, Fabián Ruiz
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw | 3.95 | 24.0% | -5.0 pts |
| Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw | 1.05 | 90.6% | +2.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.11 | 85.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stade Brestois 29 | 7.84 | 12.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris Saint Germain | 1.07 | 88.0% | +3.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 86.0% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 69.1% | +3.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.95 | 49.0% | +3.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.74 | 53.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 over 1.5 team goals | 4.29 | 21.7% | -2.7 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 team goals | 1.23 | 75.4% | +4.5 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet | 13.00 | 7.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 2.20 | 42.4% | +2.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-2 7.64 · 0-3 8.20 · 1-2 8.82 · 1-3 9.73 · 0-1 10.09
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-13 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 26 | Paris Saint Germain | 1-0 | Stade Brestois 29 |
| 25 Oct 25 | Stade Brestois 29 | 0-3 | Paris Saint Germain |