Leeds 4–1 Newcastle
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Leeds to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 45% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Leeds carried the greater threat — shots 15–7, 6–5 on target, 10–4 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 1.37 | 69.0% | +1.8 pts |
| Double chance Newcastle or draw | 1.62 | 58.0% | -2.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 73.1% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Leeds | 1.63 | 57.5% | +2.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Newcastle | 2.21 | 42.5% | -2.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 76.4% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 54.1% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.79 | 33.8% | +1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 | 58.4% | +0.9 pts |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 2.03 | 46.4% | +2.5 pts |
| Newcastle over 1.5 team goals | 2.49 | 37.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Leeds clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.9 pts |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.44 · 2-1 8.74 · 1-0 9.02 · 1-2 10.55 · 0-1 10.83
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-14 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jan 26 | Newcastle | 4-3 | Leeds |
| 30 Aug 25 | Leeds | 0-0 | Newcastle |