FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Serie A · Mon 14 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC

Torino 02 AS Roma

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What the chances were worth

Torino
0.76
expected goals (xG)
AS Roma
1.91
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.76–1.91.

What the model expected

Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.

Torino
25%
Draw
27%
AS Roma
48%

The model made AS Roma to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 48% beforehand.

One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.

The brain read

AS Roma created the better chances — the xG read 0.8–1.9 and the shot count agreed (7–14, 3–5 on target). AS Roma got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 3). On the balance of chances, the 0–2 reads fair.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Torino
AS Roma
53%
Ball Possession
47%
7
Total Shots
14
3
Shots on Goal
5
3
Shots off Goal
8
1
Blocked Shots
1
3
Shots inside box
12
4
Shots outside box
2
0.76
Expected goals (xG)
1.91
1
Corner Kicks
8
0
Offsides
2
507
Total passes
437
417
Passes accurate
359
82%
Passes %
82%
7
Fouls
20
0
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
0.74
Goals prevented
0.74

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Torino
16%
market implied · price 6.03 · opened 16%
Draw
23%
market implied · price 4.21 · opened 23%
AS Roma
62%
market implied · price 1.54 · opened 60%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Torino or draw2.4238.9%-0.9 pts
Double chance AS Roma or draw1.1383.5%+0.5 pts
Double chance either team1.2277.6%+0.4 pts
Draw no bet — Torino4.4620.9%-1.2 pts
Draw no bet — AS Roma1.1879.1%+1.2 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.2277.4%+2.3 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.7454.9%+2.5 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.7434.2%+3.2 pts
Both teams to score1.7952.0%+1.6 pts
Torino over 1.5 team goals3.9923.5%+1.3 pts
AS Roma over 1.5 team goals1.5959.0%+2.6 pts
Torino clean sheet6.5014.6%-1.1 pts
AS Roma clean sheet2.2541.1%-1.3 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-1 6.97 · 0-2 7.37 · 1-1 7.47 · 1-2 7.63 · 0-3 10.95

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-14 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
18 Jan 26Torino0-2AS Roma
14 Sep 25AS Roma0-1Torino