Ajax 5–1 Willem II
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 5–1; by chance quality the match ran 3.79–1.58.
The brain read
Ajax created the better chances — the xG read 3.8–1.6 and the shot count agreed (33–10, 12–4 on target). Ajax got into the box far more often (26 shots inside it to 7) and Ajax held 70% of the ball. Ajax's finishing ran hot — 5 from 3.8 xG, 12 of 33 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 5–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.