Alaves 0–1 Valencia
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Alaves to win (51%); it finished with Valencia to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 22% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Alaves carried the greater threat — shots 15–10, 3–3 on target, 11–5 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Alaves 3-5-2
- 1 Sivera (G)
- 2 N. Valentini (D)
- 4 Denis Suárez (M)
- 7 Angel Pérez (M)
- 8 Antonio Blanco (M)
- 11 Toni Martínez (F)
- 14 N. Tenaglia (D)
- 15 L. Boyé (F)
- 16 V. Koski (D)
- 19 Pablo Ibáñez (M)
- 21 A. Rebbach (M)
Bench: C. Benavídez, Carles Aleñá, Jonny, Selu Diallo, M. Díaz, Yusi, Guevara, Izei Hernández, Hugo Novoa, X. Olaiz, A. Giménez, Miguel Rodríguez
Valencia 4-4-2
- 1 S. Dimitrievski (G)
- 2 G. Rodríguez (M)
- 7 A. Danjuma (M)
- 8 Javi Guerra (F)
- 9 Hugo Duro (F)
- 12 J. de Haas (D)
- 14 José Gayà (D)
- 18 Pepelu (D)
- 23 F. Ugrinic (M)
- 24 Pablo Maffeo (D)
- 33 Aaron Mayol (M)
Bench: Jesús Vázquez, R. Sato, Luis Rioja, Dani Raba, Alex Panach, David Otorbi, Arnau Martínez, H. Elliott, A. Dieng, Iker Córdoba, Aimar Blázquez, K. van Oevelen
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Alaves or draw | 1.15 | 81.8% | +4.0 pts |
| Double chance Valencia or draw | 2.13 | 44.3% | -7.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.9% | +3.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Alaves | 1.24 | 75.5% | +7.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Valencia | 3.80 | 24.5% | -7.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.34 | 70.4% | +3.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45.9% | +4.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.54 | 26.4% | +3.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.93 | 48.2% | +1.0 pts |
| Alaves over 1.5 team goals | 1.87 | 50.0% | +7.5 pts |
| Valencia over 1.5 team goals | 4.34 | 21.6% | -1.9 pts |
| Alaves clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | +3.2 pts |
| Valencia clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -4.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 5.95 · 1-1 6.47 · 2-0 7.43 · 2-1 7.76 · 0-0 8.82
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-15 17:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 26 | Valencia | 3-2 | Alaves |
| 20 Oct 25 | Alaves | 0-0 | Valencia |