Elche 2–3 Real Madrid
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Real Madrid to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 44% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Real Madrid carried the greater threat — shots 11–20, 3–4 on target, 7–15 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Elche or draw | 4.41 | 21.6% | -6.0 pts |
| Double chance Real Madrid or draw | 1.04 | 91.5% | +3.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.10 | 86.9% | +3.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Elche | 9.18 | 10.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Madrid | 1.05 | 89.8% | +3.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.06 | 87.7% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 72.4% | +3.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.79 | 53.2% | +3.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.9% | -2.5 pts |
| Elche over 1.5 team goals | 4.19 | 22.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Real Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 1.19 | 78.5% | +4.5 pts |
| Elche clean sheet | 17.00 | 5.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 2.20 | 42.4% | +3.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-2 8.30 · 0-3 8.46 · 1-2 9.14 · 1-3 9.49 · 0-1 11.04
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-15 19:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 26 | Real Madrid | 4-1 | Elche |
| 23 Nov 25 | Elche | 2-2 | Real Madrid |