Hibernian 0–1 Kilmarnock
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.31–1.95.
The brain read
The xG read 1.3–1.9 in Kilmarnock's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 23–12 overall and 7–7 on target went Hibernian's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Hibernian got into the box far more often (18 shots inside it to 9). Hibernian's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.3 xG despite 7 of 23 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.