Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Espanyol
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.52–1.49.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 50% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.5–1.5, shots 16–19 with 2–5 on target. Espanyol got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 9). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3
- 2 A. Rațiu (D)
- 4 Pedro Díaz (M)
- 6 P. Ciss (M)
- 8 Unai López (M)
- 10 Sergio Camello (F)
- 14 G. Tsitaishvili (F)
- 15 Mujaid Sadick (D)
- 17 Adrià Pedrosa (D)
- 18 Álvaro García (F)
- 24 F. Lejeune (D)
- 25 E. Audero (G)
Bench: Rayane Belid, I. Balliu, G. Bouare, Dani Cárdenas, Pelayo Fernández, M. Kumbulla, Adrián Molina, Fran Pérez, M. Roman, Óscar Valentín, Alemão, Marco de las Sías
Espanyol 4-2-3-1
- 3 Q. Hartman (M)
- 4 Urko González (M)
- 5 C. Riedel (D)
- 6 L. Cabrera (D)
- 9 Roberto Fernández (F)
- 13 M. Dmitrović (G)
- 20 Gabriel Moscardo (M)
- 21 Roger Hinojo (D)
- 23 O. El Hilali (D)
- 26 Rafel Bauzà (M)
- 28 Javier Hernandez (M)
Bench: T. Dolan, V. Drkušić, Edu Expósito, Marcos Fernández, Ángel Fortuño, Pol Lozano, J. A. Lopez, Pere Milla, Unai Núñez, Llorenç Serred, Bryan Zaragoza, Álex Calatrava
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw | 1.36 | 69.1% | -4.8 pts |
| Double chance Espanyol or draw | 1.60 | 59.1% | +5.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rayo Vallecano | 1.64 | 57.2% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Espanyol | 2.19 | 42.8% | +6.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 73.1% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 49.8% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 29.3% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.69 | 55.1% | +2.1 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals | 2.20 | 42.8% | -3.1 pts |
| Espanyol over 1.5 team goals | 2.62 | 35.9% | +5.3 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -6.4 pts |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +3.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.04 · 1-0 7.93 · 2-1 8.72 · 0-1 9.43 · 0-0 10.06
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-15 16:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 26 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Espanyol |
| 07 Dec 25 | Espanyol | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano |