Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Espanyol
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 50% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Espanyol carried the greater threat — shots 16–19, 2–5 on target, 9–12 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3
- 2 A. Rațiu (D)
- 4 Pedro Díaz (M)
- 6 P. Ciss (M)
- 8 Unai López (M)
- 10 Sergio Camello (F)
- 14 G. Tsitaishvili (F)
- 15 Mujaid Sadick (D)
- 17 Adrià Pedrosa (D)
- 18 Álvaro García (F)
- 24 F. Lejeune (D)
- 25 E. Audero (G)
Bench: Rayane Belid, I. Balliu, G. Bouare, Dani Cárdenas, Pelayo Fernández, M. Kumbulla, Adrián Molina, Fran Pérez, M. Roman, Óscar Valentín, Alemão, Marco de las Sías
Espanyol 4-2-3-1
- 3 Q. Hartman (M)
- 4 Urko González (M)
- 5 C. Riedel (D)
- 6 L. Cabrera (D)
- 9 Roberto Fernández (F)
- 13 M. Dmitrović (G)
- 20 Gabriel Moscardo (M)
- 21 Roger Hinojo (D)
- 23 O. El Hilali (D)
- 26 Rafel Bauzà (M)
- 28 Javier Hernandez (M)
Bench: T. Dolan, V. Drkušić, Edu Expósito, Marcos Fernández, Ángel Fortuño, Pol Lozano, J. A. Lopez, Pere Milla, Unai Núñez, Llorenç Serred, Bryan Zaragoza, Álex Calatrava
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw | 1.36 | 69.1% | -4.8 pts |
| Double chance Espanyol or draw | 1.60 | 59.1% | +5.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rayo Vallecano | 1.64 | 57.2% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Espanyol | 2.19 | 42.8% | +6.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 73.1% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 49.8% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 29.3% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.69 | 55.1% | +2.1 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals | 2.20 | 42.8% | -3.1 pts |
| Espanyol over 1.5 team goals | 2.62 | 35.9% | +5.3 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -6.4 pts |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +3.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.04 · 1-0 7.93 · 2-1 8.72 · 0-1 9.43 · 0-0 10.06
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-15 16:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 26 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Espanyol |
| 07 Dec 25 | Espanyol | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano |