Malaga 1–3 Villarreal
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 0.63–3.33.
The brain read
Villarreal created the better chances — the xG read 0.6–3.3 and the shot count agreed (5–16, 1–7 on target). Villarreal got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 4) and Villarreal held 63% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the 1–3 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Malaga or draw | 1.88 | 50.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Double chance Villarreal or draw | 1.27 | 74.3% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 75.3% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Malaga | 2.68 | 34.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Villarreal | 1.42 | 65.3% | +1.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 79.3% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.63 | 58.7% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.48 | 37.9% | +1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 | 60.1% | +0.5 pts |
| Malaga over 1.5 team goals | 2.56 | 36.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Villarreal over 1.5 team goals | 1.75 | 53.8% | +0.9 pts |
| Malaga clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.02 · 1-2 8.09 · 0-1 9.26 · 0-2 10.43 · 2-2 11.59
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-17 19:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).