FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · La Liga · Thu 17 Sep 2026, 20:30 BST

Malaga
v Villarreal

← Back to the Thu 17 Sep board

The model's read

Not enough matches played yet this season for a model read on this fixture. It appears automatically once both sides pass the warm-up.

The market’s read

Malaga
26%
market implied · price 3.56 · opened 27%
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.72 · opened 25%
Villarreal
48%
market implied · price 1.96 · opened 48%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Malaga or draw1.8451.1%-0.4 pts
Double chance Villarreal or draw1.2873.6%+0.4 pts
Double chance either team1.2575.3%-0.0 pts
Draw no bet — Malaga2.6235.5%-0.4 pts
Draw no bet — Villarreal1.4464.5%+0.4 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.1979.0%+0.9 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.6458.3%+0.9 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.5137.5%+0.6 pts
Both teams to score1.5560.1%+0.5 pts
Malaga over 1.5 team goals2.5636.6%+0.3 pts
Villarreal over 1.5 team goals1.7653.3%+0.4 pts
Malaga clean sheet5.5017.2%+0.0 pts
Villarreal clean sheet3.2529.0%+0.0 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.03 · 1-2 8.10 · 0-1 9.26 · 0-2 10.48 · 2-2 11.53

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:02 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.

Availability and rotation

Malaga: 5 recorded — M. Diarra (Missing Fixture), J. Lobete (Missing Fixture), D. Murillo (Missing Fixture), A. Ochoa (Missing Fixture), F. Calero (Questionable)

Villarreal: 1 recorded — J. Foyth (Questionable)

Rotation risk — Malaga: another match 2d after (2026-09-20).

Rotation risk — Villarreal: another match 2d after (2026-09-20).

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.

Malaga

  • Malaga are winless in their last 5 league games (D3 L2).

Villarreal

  • Villarreal have lost their last 3 league games.
  • Villarreal are winless in their last 5 league games (D2 L3).
  • Villarreal have conceded in each of their last 19 league games.
  • Villarreal have not won any of their last 6 away league games (D4 L2).

Players in form

  • Alfonso Herrero has made 19 saves in 5 league games this season.
  • N. Pépé has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
  • Gerard Moreno has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
  • P. Gulácsi has made 10 saves in 5 league games this season.

This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.

Recent form — Malaga

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
13 SepD1-1Celta Vigo (A)0.4 - 1.9
06 SepD0-0Levante (H)1.5 - 0.8
30 AugL0-4Real Madrid (A)0.7 - 2.3
24 AugD1-1Deportivo La Coruna (H)2.0 - 1.1
19 AugL0-2Atletico Madrid (A)0.2 - 0.8
20 JunW2-1Almeria (A)

Recent form — Villarreal

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
14 SepL1-2Real Betis (H)1.9 - 3.5
08 SepL2-3Borussia Dortmund (A)1.3 - 2.8
05 SepL2-3Deportivo La Coruna (H)1.1 - 0.8
28 AugL0-1Alaves (A)1.3 - 0.8
23 AugD2-2Atletico Madrid (A)3.1 - 0.7
16 AugD2-2Racing Santander (A)0.9 - 2.0

Chance quality, most recent season

Malaga
-0.46
xG diff/game · 0.94 for, 1.40 against
Villarreal
+0.11
xG diff/game · 1.66 for, 1.56 against

Where they stand

TeamLeagueSeason PosP PtsPPGGoals Form
MalagaLa Liga2026/2718530.62–8DDLDL
VillarrealLa Liga2026/2719520.47–10LLLDD

The table as it stands this season.

Home and away

TeamVenueLeagueSeason W-D-L Goals for / against per gameClean sheets
MalagahomeLa Liga2026/270-2-00.5 / 0.51
VillarrealawayLa Liga2026/270-2-11.3 / 1.70

This season’s home and away splits.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings: Malaga 2 wins, 3 draws, Villarreal 5 wins — 1.8 goals a game on average.

Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.