Real Betis
v Getafe
The model's read
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Real Betis or draw | 82.0% |
| Double chance Getafe or draw | 43.9% |
| Double chance either team | 74.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% |
| Real Betis over 1.5 team goals | 51.4% |
| Getafe over 1.5 team goals | 22.1% |
| Real Betis clean sheet | 41.4% |
| Getafe clean sheet | 17.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.4% · 1-0 11.6% · 2-0 11.0% · 2-1 9.7% · 0-0 8.5%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Real Betis or draw | 1.15 | 82.0% | +2.1 pts | 82.0% | +0.0 |
| Double chance Getafe or draw | 2.17 | 43.6% | -3.6 pts | 43.9% | +0.3 |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.4% | +1.6 pts | 74.1% | -0.3 |
| Draw no bet — Real Betis | 1.23 | 75.5% | +3.1 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Getafe | 3.81 | 24.5% | -3.1 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.39 | 67.7% | +2.0 pts | 74.5% | +6.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 42.9% | +2.0 pts | 48.3% | +5.4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.95 | 23.7% | +1.4 pts | 26.5% | +2.9 |
| Both teams to score | 2.09 | 44.7% | +0.3 pts | 49.3% | +4.6 |
| Real Betis over 1.5 team goals | 1.94 | 48.4% | +3.8 pts | 51.4% | +3.0 |
| Getafe over 1.5 team goals | 4.73 | 19.8% | -0.4 pts | 22.1% | +2.3 |
| Real Betis clean sheet | 2.00 | 46.4% | +0.0 pts | 41.4% | -5.0 |
| Getafe clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -1.7 pts | 17.9% | -3.8 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 5.40 · 1-1 6.65 · 2-0 6.83 · 2-1 8.15 · 0-0 8.35
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:03 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- over 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.64 implies a 57% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 65%. An 8-point disagreement.
- over 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.22 implies a 43% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 48%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Getafe over 0.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.74 implies a 54% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 59%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Real Betis conceding — the market’s price of 1.73 implies a 54% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 59%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Getafe over 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.13 implies a 30% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 35%. A 5-point disagreement.
- over 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.23 implies a 29% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 34%. A 5-point disagreement.
1 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Availability and rotation
Real Betis: 2 recorded — A. Ruibal (Missing Fixture), D. Llorente (Questionable)
Getafe: 5 recorded — Juanmi (Missing Fixture), Kiko Femenia (Missing Fixture), C. Uche (Missing Fixture), A. Abqar (Questionable), A. Garcia (Questionable)
Rotation risk — Real Betis: another match 3d before (2026-09-14).
Rotation risk — Getafe: another match 2d after (2026-09-20).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Real Betis
- Real Betis have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
Getafe
- Getafe are winless in their last 3 league games (D2 L1).
- Only 1 of Getafe's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have not scored in any of Getafe's last 6 away league games.
- Getafe have scored just 1 goal across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Álvaro Vallés is averaging a 8.0 match rating over 5 league games this season.
- Rodrigo Riquelme has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- David Soria has made 13 saves in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Real Betis
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep | W | 2-1 | Villarreal (A) | 3.5 - 1.9 |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-2 | Lille (A) | 1.8 - 0.8 |
| 04 Sep | W | 1-0 | Real Madrid (H) | 0.9 - 3.5 |
| 29 Aug | L | 2-5 | Levante (A) | 1.9 - 2.8 |
| 25 Aug | W | 1-0 | Valencia (A) | 0.7 - 1.2 |
| 21 Aug | W | 1-0 | Real Sociedad (H) | 0.9 - 1.4 |
Recent form — Getafe
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | D | 1-1 | Deportivo La Coruna (H) | 0.8 - 0.9 |
| 07 Sep | D | 1-1 | Celta Vigo (H) | 0.7 - 1.0 |
| 31 Aug | L | 0-1 | Osasuna (A) | 0.7 - 1.7 |
| 23 Aug | W | 1-0 | Racing Santander (H) | 1.2 - 1.0 |
| 15 Aug | L | 0-3 | Alaves (A) | 0.2 - 1.8 |
| 23 May | W | 1-0 | Osasuna (H) | 0.2 - 0.5 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | La Liga | 2026/27 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 7–6 | WWLWW |
| Getafe | La Liga | 2026/27 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 3–6 | DDLWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 1.0 / 0.0 | 2 |
| Getafe | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-0-2 | 0.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Real Betis 5 wins, 3 draws, Getafe 2 wins — 2.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 26 | Getafe | 2-0 | Real Betis |
| 21 Dec 25 | Real Betis | 4-0 | Getafe |