Brentford 3–0 Chelsea
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.65–0.83.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Brentford to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 44% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Brentford created the better chances — the xG read 2.6–0.8 and the shot count agreed (13–12, 6–2 on target). Chelsea's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.8 xG despite 2 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 3–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Brentford or draw | 1.51 | 62.5% | +4.5 pts |
| Double chance Chelsea or draw | 1.48 | 63.6% | -3.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Brentford | 1.89 | 49.5% | +5.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Chelsea | 1.85 | 50.5% | -5.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 83.1% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 63.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.21 | 43.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66.6% | +1.1 pts |
| Brentford over 1.5 team goals | 1.87 | 50.0% | +4.0 pts |
| Chelsea over 1.5 team goals | 1.86 | 50.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Brentford clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +3.6 pts |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -2.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.44 · 1-2 9.53 · 2-1 9.66 · 2-2 10.25 · 0-1 12.91
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-18 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 26 | Chelsea | 2-0 | Brentford |
| 13 Sep 25 | Brentford | 2-2 | Chelsea |