Fixture · Premier League · Fri 18 Sep 2026, 20:00 BST
Brentford
v Chelsea
The model's read
Brentford
43%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
Chelsea
31%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Brentford or draw | 68.5% |
| Double chance Chelsea or draw | 56.6% |
| Double chance either team | 74.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.4% |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% |
| Brentford over 1.5 team goals | 52.4% |
| Chelsea over 1.5 team goals | 43.4% |
| Brentford clean sheet | 22.9% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 17.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.3% · 2-1 9.0% · 1-2 7.5% · 2-2 6.6% · 2-0 6.1%
Model readiness. Brentford has played 4 league games this season, Chelsea 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Brentford
33%
market implied · price 2.84 · opened 33%
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.74 · opened 25%
Chelsea
41%
market implied · price 2.28 · opened 42%
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Brentford or draw | 1.63 | 58.0% | -0.0 pts | 68.5% | +10.6 |
| Double chance Chelsea or draw | 1.41 | 67.0% | -0.3 pts | 56.6% | -10.4 |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 75.0% | +0.4 pts | 74.9% | -0.1 |
| Draw no bet — Brentford | 2.14 | 43.8% | -0.3 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Chelsea | 1.67 | 56.2% | +0.3 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 83.4% | +0.9 pts | 84.3% | +0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.46 | 64.3% | +1.0 pts | 62.6% | -1.7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 44.0% | +1.3 pts | 40.4% | -3.6 |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66.3% | +0.7 pts | 64.8% | -1.5 |
| Brentford over 1.5 team goals | 1.99 | 47.3% | +1.2 pts | 52.4% | +5.1 |
| Chelsea over 1.5 team goals | 1.74 | 53.9% | +0.7 pts | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Brentford clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts | 22.9% | +5.7 |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts | 17.3% | -6.1 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.65 · 1-2 8.95 · 2-1 10.16 · 2-2 10.48 · 0-1 12.44
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:01 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Brentford, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.14 implies a 44% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 58%. A 14-point disagreement.
- Brentford, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.15 implies a 44% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 58%. A 14-point disagreement.
- Chelsea under 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.53 implies a 62% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 75%. A 13-point disagreement.
- Brentford +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.65 implies a 58% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 69%. An 11-point disagreement.
- Chelsea under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 4.10 implies a 23% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 34%. An 11-point disagreement.
- Brentford or the draw — the market’s price of 1.63 implies a 58% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 69%. An 11-point disagreement.
8 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Brentford
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last 6 league games (W1 D5).
- Brentford are winless in their last 3 league games (D3 L0).
Chelsea
- Chelsea have conceded in each of their last 20 league games.
- Both teams have scored in each of Chelsea's last 8 league games.
- 5 of Chelsea's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- K. Schade has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- V. Janelt has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- C. Kelleher has made 15 saves in 4 league games this season.
- João Pedro has 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 league games this season.
- M. Rogers has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- C. Palmer has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Brentford
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Bournemouth (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Sunderland (H) | 1.2 - 1.7 |
| 30 Aug | D | 1-1 | Leeds (A) | 1.6 - 1.4 |
| 22 Aug | W | 3-0 | Tottenham (H) | 4.0 - 0.5 |
| 24 May | D | 1-1 | Liverpool (A) | 1.6 - 3.0 |
| 17 May | D | 2-2 | Crystal Palace (H) | 1.7 - 1.7 |
Recent form — Chelsea
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Hull City (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | L | 1-2 | Arsenal (A) | 0.4 - 2.0 |
| 30 Aug | W | 4-3 | Brighton (H) | 3.0 - 1.5 |
| 24 Aug | W | 3-2 | Fulham (A) | 1.7 - 1.3 |
| 24 May | L | 1-2 | Sunderland (A) | 0.9 - 1.8 |
| 19 May | W | 2-1 | Tottenham (H) | 0.6 - 1.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Brentford
+1.04
xG diff/game · 2.24 for, 1.20 against
Chelsea
+0.08
xG diff/game · 1.68 for, 1.60 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | Premier League | 2026/27 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 7–4 | DDDW |
| Chelsea | Premier League | 2026/27 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 10–9 | DLWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Chelsea | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Brentford 3 wins, 4 draws, Chelsea 3 wins — 2.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 26 | Chelsea | 2-0 | Brentford |
| 13 Sep 25 | Brentford | 2-2 | Chelsea |