Fixture · Championship · Fri 18 Sep 2026, 20:00 BST
Bristol City
v Watford
The model's read
Bristol City
41%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Watford
30%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Bristol City or draw | 69.7% |
| Double chance Watford or draw | 59.4% |
| Double chance either team | 70.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% |
| Bristol City over 1.5 team goals | 40.2% |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 32.4% |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 31.2% |
| Watford clean sheet | 25.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.9% · 1-0 9.6% · 0-0 9.1% · 2-1 8.7% · 0-1 7.9%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Bristol City
50%
market implied · price 1.88 · opened 49%
Draw
26%
market implied · price 3.53 · opened 27%
Watford
24%
market implied · price 3.89 · opened 25%
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bristol City or draw | 1.24 | 75.7% | +0.3 pts | 69.7% | -6.1 |
| Double chance Watford or draw | 1.86 | 50.4% | -0.3 pts | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.9% | -0.0 pts | 70.9% | -2.9 |
| Draw no bet — Bristol City | 1.39 | 66.7% | +0.6 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Watford | 2.79 | 33.3% | -0.6 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 73.8% | +0.5 pts | 73.5% | -0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 50.8% | +0.4 pts | 46.8% | -4.1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.02 | 30.8% | +0.5 pts | 25.2% | -5.6 |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.3% | +0.5 pts | 52.8% | -1.5 |
| Bristol City over 1.5 team goals | 1.89 | 49.2% | +0.4 pts | 40.2% | -9.0 |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 3.10 | 29.9% | -0.3 pts | 32.4% | +2.5 |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts | 31.2% | -4.2 |
| Watford clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +0.0 pts | 25.1% | +4.3 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.66 · 1-0 7.40 · 2-1 8.18 · 2-0 9.23 · 0-0 10.43
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:01 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Watford, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.85 implies a 33% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 43%. A 10-point disagreement.
- Bristol City under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.18 implies a 29% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 38%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Watford, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.79 implies a 33% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 43%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Watford +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.90 implies a 50% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 59%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Bristol City under 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.83 implies a 51% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 60%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Watford or the draw — the market’s price of 1.86 implies a 50% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 59%. A 9-point disagreement.
7 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bristol City
- Bristol City have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Watford
- Watford have not won any of their last 6 away league games (D1 L5).
- Watford have conceded in each of their last 14 league games.
- Watford have scored just 2 goals across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Rio Cardines has 0 goals and 5 assists in 7 league games this season.
- D. Ballard has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- L. Tolaj has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- F. Ravaglia has made 22 saves in 7 league games this season.
- Amin Nabizada has scored 3 goals in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Bristol City
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep | L | 0-1 | Lincoln (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-4 | Southampton (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 2-1 | Burnley (A) | 1.1 - 0.3 |
| 01 Sep | W | 3-1 | Preston (A) | 1.8 - 1.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Portsmouth (H) | 0.6 - 1.4 |
| 22 Aug | D | 2-2 | Birmingham (A) | 1.2 - 0.7 |
Recent form — Watford
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Stoke City (H) | — |
| 08 Sep | W | 2-1 | Preston (H) | 1.3 - 2.4 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-1 | West Brom (A) | 1.3 - 1.1 |
| 01 Sep | L | 0-2 | Swansea (A) | 0.9 - 2.7 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | West Ham (H) | 1.6 - 0.9 |
| 22 Aug | D | 1-1 | Wrexham (A) | 0.3 - 0.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Bristol City
-0.40
xG diff/game · 1.03 for, 1.44 against
Watford
-0.59
xG diff/game · 1.03 for, 1.61 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | Championship | 2026/27 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 10–12 | LLWWW |
| Watford | Championship | 2026/27 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 1.143 | 7–9 | LWLLD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
| Watford | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-1-2 | 0.3 / 1.3 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Bristol City 3 wins, 3 draws, Watford 4 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb 26 | Bristol City | 1-2 | Watford |
| 07 Nov 25 | Watford | 1-1 | Bristol City |