Fixture · La Liga · Fri 18 Sep 2026, 20:00 BST
Espanyol
v Elche
The model's read
Espanyol
49%
match result
Draw
28%
match result
Elche
23%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Espanyol or draw | 77.0% |
| Double chance Elche or draw | 51.0% |
| Double chance either team | 72.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% |
| Espanyol over 1.5 team goals | 45.7% |
| Elche over 1.5 team goals | 26.1% |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 37.1% |
| Elche clean sheet | 21.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.3% · 1-0 11.0% · 2-0 9.5% · 2-1 9.4% · 0-0 9.1%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Espanyol
51%
market implied · price 1.86 · opened 51%
Draw
27%
market implied · price 3.46 · opened 27%
Elche
22%
market implied · price 4.28 · opened 22%
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Espanyol or draw | 1.22 | 77.6% | -0.2 pts | 77.0% | -0.7 |
| Double chance Elche or draw | 1.93 | 48.8% | +0.0 pts | 51.0% | +2.3 |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.6% | +0.2 pts | 72.0% | -1.6 |
| Draw no bet — Espanyol | 1.34 | 69.6% | -0.0 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Elche | 3.06 | 30.4% | +0.0 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 72.9% | +0.0 pts | 73.2% | +0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 49.5% | +0.1 pts | 46.5% | -3.0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.21 | 29.2% | -0.1 pts | 25.0% | -4.2 |
| Both teams to score | 1.76 | 52.9% | +0.2 pts | 50.7% | -2.3 |
| Espanyol over 1.5 team goals | 1.90 | 49.1% | +0.0 pts | 45.7% | -3.4 |
| Elche over 1.5 team goals | 3.36 | 27.8% | +0.3 pts | 26.1% | -1.8 |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -2.0 pts | 37.1% | +1.7 |
| Elche clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +0.0 pts | 21.3% | +0.6 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.38 · 1-0 6.95 · 2-1 7.91 · 2-0 8.65 · 0-0 10.45
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:03 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Espanyol under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.28 implies a 29% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 35%. A 6-point disagreement.
- Espanyol under 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.83 implies a 51% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 57%. A 6-point disagreement.
- under 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.89 implies a 50% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 56%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Elche +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.98 implies a 48% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 53%. A 5-point disagreement.
- under 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.67 implies a 35% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 39%. A 4-point disagreement.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Elche: another match 3d before (2026-09-15).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Elche
- Elche are winless in their last 7 league games (D3 L4).
- Elche have not won any of their last 6 away league games (D3 L3).
- Both teams have scored in each of Elche's last 4 league games.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Elche's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Roberto Fernández has scored 6 goals in 6 league games this season.
- M. Dmitrović has made 16 saves in 6 league games this season.
- Javier Hernandez has 0 goals and 4 assists in 6 league games this season.
- Fer Niño has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- M. Dituro has made 14 saves in 6 league games this season.
- L. Cepeda has 2 assists in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Espanyol
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep | L | 1-2 | Rayo Vallecano (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | W | 2-0 | Osasuna (A) | 1.4 - 1.1 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Sevilla (H) | 1.2 - 0.5 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-2 | Real Sociedad (A) | 0.8 - 1.8 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-2 | Real Madrid (H) | 0.5 - 0.3 |
| 16 Aug | W | 3-0 | Levante (H) | 1.6 - 0.3 |
Recent form — Elche
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Madrid (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Athletic Club (A) | — |
| 07 Sep | L | 2-3 | Real Sociedad (H) | 2.5 - 0.6 |
| 28 Aug | L | 2-3 | Racing Santander (A) | 1.0 - 1.5 |
| 23 Aug | L | 0-5 | Barcelona (H) | 0.7 - 4.1 |
| 17 Aug | D | 1-1 | Deportivo La Coruna (A) | 1.4 - 0.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Espanyol
+0.30
xG diff/game · 1.09 for, 0.79 against
Elche
-0.21
xG diff/game · 1.40 for, 1.61 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | La Liga | 2026/27 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 1.167 | 9–7 | LWDLL |
| Elche | La Liga | 2026/27 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0.333 | 8–16 | LDLLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Elche | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-2-1 | 1.3 / 1.7 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Espanyol 3 wins, 5 draws, Elche 2 wins — 2.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar 26 | Elche | 2-2 | Espanyol |
| 25 Oct 25 | Espanyol | 1-0 | Elche |