Fixture · Serie B · Fri 18 Sep 2026, 19:30 BST
Juve Stabia
v Cesena
The model's read
Juve Stabia
45%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Cesena
25%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Juve Stabia or draw | 74.7% |
| Double chance Cesena or draw | 54.5% |
| Double chance either team | 70.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% |
| Juve Stabia over 1.5 team goals | 41.8% |
| Cesena over 1.5 team goals | 26.6% |
| Juve Stabia clean sheet | 36.6% |
| Cesena clean sheet | 24.0% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.9% · 1-0 11.3% · 0-0 10.0% · 2-1 9.0% · 2-0 8.9%
Model readiness. Juve Stabia has played 4 league games this season, Cesena 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Juve Stabia
40%
market implied · price 2.29 · opened 40%
Draw
29%
market implied · price 3.17 · opened 29%
Cesena
31%
market implied · price 3.01 · opened 31%
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Juve Stabia or draw | 1.35 | 69.3% | +0.4 pts | 74.7% | +5.4 |
| Double chance Cesena or draw | 1.57 | 59.7% | -0.2 pts | 54.5% | -5.2 |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.0% | -0.2 pts | 70.8% | -0.2 |
| Draw no bet — Juve Stabia | 1.63 | 57.0% | +0.6 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Cesena | 2.16 | 43.0% | -0.6 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 71.9% | -0.2 pts | 71.1% | -0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47.3% | -0.8 pts | 43.9% | -3.4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.37 | 27.6% | -0.5 pts | 22.8% | -4.8 |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.1% | -0.9 pts | 49.5% | -3.6 |
| Juve Stabia over 1.5 team goals | 2.25 | 41.3% | -0.2 pts | 41.8% | +0.4 |
| Cesena over 1.5 team goals | 2.73 | 34.1% | -0.5 pts | 26.6% | -7.5 |
| Juve Stabia clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +4.7 pts | 36.6% | +2.8 |
| Cesena clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +1.8 pts | 24.0% | -2.8 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.96 · 1-0 7.39 · 0-0 8.53 · 0-1 8.88 · 2-1 9.09
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Juve Stabia
- Juve Stabia have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Cesena
- Cesena are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W1 D3).
- Both teams have scored in each of Cesena's last 5 league games.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Cesena's last 6 away league games.
- Cesena have scored just 2 goals across their last 6 away league games.
Recent form — Juve Stabia
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Vicenza Virtus (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | L | 0-3 | Pisa (H) | — |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Sampdoria (A) | 0.9 - 1.4 |
| 23 Aug | L | 0-1 | Palermo (A) | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| 19 May | L | 1-2 | Monza (A) | 0.4 - 1.9 |
| 16 May | D | 2-2 | Monza (H) | 2.2 - 0.7 |
Recent form — Cesena
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Cremonese (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Mantova (H) | 1.3 - 0.4 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Virtus Entella (A) | 0.5 - 0.7 |
| 23 Aug | D | 1-1 | Sampdoria (H) | 1.0 - 1.1 |
| 08 May | L | 3-4 | Padova (H) | 2.3 - 1.8 |
| 01 May | D | 0-0 | Carrarese (A) | 0.5 - 1.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Juve Stabia
-0.41
xG diff/game · 0.86 for, 1.28 against
Cesena
+0.21
xG diff/game · 0.92 for, 0.72 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia | Serie B | 2026/27 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 3–6 | DLWL |
| Cesena | Serie B | 2026/27 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 6–5 | DDWD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juve Stabia | home | Serie B | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
| Cesena | away | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 5 meetings: Juve Stabia 3 wins, 2 draws, Cesena 0 wins — 2.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 26 | Juve Stabia | 2-0 | Cesena |
| 20 Dec 25 | Cesena | 1-1 | Juve Stabia |