Fixture · Ligue 1 · Fri 18 Sep 2026, 19:45 BST
Monaco
v Lens
The model's read
Monaco
38%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
Lens
37%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Monaco or draw | 63.4% |
| Double chance Lens or draw | 61.8% |
| Double chance either team | 74.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.5% |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% |
| Monaco over 1.5 team goals | 49.4% |
| Lens over 1.5 team goals | 48.2% |
| Monaco clean sheet | 19.8% |
| Lens clean sheet | 19.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.1% · 2-1 8.4% · 1-2 8.2% · 2-2 6.8% · 1-0 5.2%
Model readiness. Monaco has played 4 league games this season, Lens 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Monaco
46%
market implied · price 2.04 · opened 44%
Draw
26%
market implied · price 3.67 · opened 26%
Lens
28%
market implied · price 3.34 · opened 30%
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Monaco or draw | 1.31 | 71.9% | +2.3 pts | 63.4% | -8.5 |
| Double chance Lens or draw | 1.76 | 53.4% | -2.9 pts | 61.8% | +8.4 |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.7% | +0.6 pts | 74.9% | +0.2 |
| Draw no bet — Monaco | 1.50 | 62.1% | +2.5 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Lens | 2.46 | 37.9% | -2.5 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 80.6% | +0.0 pts | 84.9% | +4.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.54 | 60.9% | +0.8 pts | 63.6% | +2.7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 40.7% | +0.2 pts | 41.5% | +0.8 |
| Both teams to score | 1.47 | 63.3% | +0.1 pts | 65.9% | +2.7 |
| Monaco over 1.5 team goals | 1.74 | 54.0% | +1.4 pts | 49.4% | -4.6 |
| Lens over 1.5 team goals | 2.32 | 40.5% | -1.4 pts | 48.2% | +7.7 |
| Monaco clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +1.8 pts | 19.8% | -7.0 |
| Lens clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts | 19.1% | +1.9 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.20 · 2-1 8.38 · 1-0 10.36 · 2-2 10.76 · 1-2 10.82
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:05 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Lens, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.55 implies a 37% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 50%. A 13-point disagreement.
- Lens, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.46 implies a 38% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 50%. A 12-point disagreement.
- Lens over 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.56 implies a 61% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 71%. An 11-point disagreement.
- Lens +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.80 implies a 53% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 63%. A 10-point disagreement.
- Lens winning — the market’s price of 3.34 implies a 28% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 38%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Lens or the draw — the market’s price of 1.76 implies a 53% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 63%. A 9-point disagreement.
9 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Monaco
- Monaco are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W3 D1).
Lens
- Lens are winless in their last 3 league games (D1 L2).
- 5 of Lens's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- Paris Josua Brunner has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- L. Hrádecký has made 16 saves in 4 league games this season.
- A. Golovin has 2 assists in 4 league games this season.
- F. Thauvin has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- F. Ivanović has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- R. Risser has made 11 saves in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Monaco
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Strasbourg (A) | — |
| 04 Sep | W | 2-1 | Paris Saint Germain (A) | 0.5 - 2.3 |
| 30 Aug | W | 2-0 | Marseille (H) | 1.5 - 1.2 |
| 23 Aug | W | 1-0 | Le Havre (A) | 1.4 - 0.6 |
| 17 May | L | 4-5 | Strasbourg (A) | 1.1 - 1.5 |
| 10 May | L | 0-1 | Lille (H) | 0.4 - 0.4 |
Recent form — Lens
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | D | 2-2 | Le Mans (A) | — |
| 10 Sep | W | 3-2 | Slavia Praha (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-1 | Lorient (H) | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-2 | Strasbourg (A) | 2.9 - 1.7 |
| 22 Aug | W | 5-2 | Auxerre (H) | 4.5 - 1.8 |
| 17 May | W | 4-0 | Lyon (A) | 1.5 - 1.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Monaco
-0.25
xG diff/game · 1.13 for, 1.38 against
Lens
+1.18
xG diff/game · 2.86 for, 1.68 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 6–2 | DWWW |
| Lens | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 8–7 | DLLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 1 |
| Lens | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Monaco 3 wins, 3 draws, Lens 4 wins — 4.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 26 | Lens | 2-3 | Monaco |
| 08 Nov 25 | Monaco | 1-4 | Lens |