Monza 2–1 Sassuolo
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.45–1.58.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.4–1.6, shots 15–20 with 6–8 on target. Sassuolo got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 8) and Sassuolo held 64% of the ball. On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Monza 3-4-2-1
- 1 Noel Törnqvist (G)
- 3 Lorenzo Lucchesi (D)
- 7 Ricardo Mangas (M)
- 9 Gustavo Varela (F)
- 10 Patrick Cutrone (F)
- 14 Ebenezer Akinsanmiro (M)
- 19 Samuele Birindelli (M)
- 44 Andrea Carboni (D)
- 46 Jay Robinson (F)
- 60 Eddy Kouadio (D)
- 90 Michael Folorunsho (M)
Bench: Aljaz Strajnar, Demba Thiam, Valentin Antov, Saba Goglichidze, Adam Bakoune, Yvan Maye, Mathis Mout, Leonardo Colombo, Manga Foe Ondoa, Omari Forson, Exequiel Zeballos, Cyril Ngonge, Andrea Colpani, Dany Mota
Sassuolo 4-3-3
- 3 Josh Doig (D)
- 10 Domenico Berardi (F)
- 15 Duje Ćaleta-Car (D)
- 16 Fedde Leysen (D)
- 18 Nemanja Matić (M)
- 42 Kristian Thorstvedt (M)
- 45 Armand Laurienté (F)
- 46 Simone Cinquegrano (D)
- 49 Arijanet Murić (G)
- 50 Darryl Bakola (M)
- 94 Sebastiano Esposito (F)
Bench: Stefano Turati, Giacomo Satalino, Ignace Van der Brempt, Cas Odenthal, Vasilije Adžić, Andrea Ghion, Rafael Obrador, Benjamín Domínguez, Luca Lipani, Ibrahim Sulemana, Kieron Bowie, Laurs Skjellerup, Nicholas Pierini
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Monza or draw | 1.49 | 63.4% | +3.0 pts |
| Double chance Sassuolo or draw | 1.45 | 65.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Monza | 1.90 | 49.2% | +4.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sassuolo | 1.84 | 50.8% | -4.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 76.7% | +2.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 54.2% | +2.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.79 | 33.7% | +2.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59.5% | +2.6 pts |
| Monza over 1.5 team goals | 2.26 | 41.7% | +3.6 pts |
| Sassuolo over 1.5 team goals | 2.20 | 42.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Monza clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Sassuolo clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.18 · 1-2 9.15 · 2-1 9.44 · 0-1 9.74 · 1-0 9.89
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-18 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).