VfL Wolfsburg 5–1 SV Darmstadt 98
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 5–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.72–1.23.
The brain read
VfL Wolfsburg created the better chances — the xG read 1.7–1.2 and the shot count agreed (19–12, 6–3 on target). VfL Wolfsburg got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 6) and VfL Wolfsburg held 64% of the ball. VfL Wolfsburg's finishing ran hot — 5 from 1.7 xG, 6 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 5–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw | 1.12 | 83.1% | +3.0 pts |
| Double chance SV Darmstadt 98 or draw | 2.57 | 36.4% | -5.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.16 | 80.5% | +2.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — VfL Wolfsburg | 1.18 | 78.8% | +4.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — SV Darmstadt 98 | 4.41 | 21.2% | -4.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 84.4% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.41 | 66.0% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.04 | 46.3% | +2.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.51 | 61.5% | -0.2 pts |
| VfL Wolfsburg over 1.5 team goals | 1.38 | 67.6% | +3.7 pts |
| SV Darmstadt 98 over 1.5 team goals | 2.85 | 32.6% | -1.8 pts |
| VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +0.0 pts |
| SV Darmstadt 98 clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.6% | -1.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 8.10 · 1-1 9.44 · 2-0 9.51 · 3-1 10.27 · 1-0 10.58
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-18 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).