Angers 2–0 Estac Troyes
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.25–1.02.
The brain read
The xG read 2.2–1 in Angers's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 12–19 overall and 3–3 on target went Estac Troyes's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Estac Troyes got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 8). Estac Troyes's finishing let them down — 0 from 1 xG despite 3 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Angers 4-2-3-1
- 1 Anthony Lopes (G)
- 2 C. Arcus (D)
- 4 O. Camara (D)
- 8 B. van den Boomen (M)
- 9 P. Peter (F)
- 10 A. Sbaï (M)
- 14 Y. Belkhdim (M)
- 17 J. Kalulu (D)
- 18 J. Allevinah (M)
- 19 A. El Ouazzani (M)
- 21 J. Lefort (D)
Bench: H. Belkebla, A. Bermont, E. Biumla, Bane Diatta, Djibirin Harouna, Marius Louër, L. Rao-Lisoa, U. Simbakoli, M. Zinga
Estac Troyes 4-2-3-1
- 3 A. Ouzenadji (D)
- 4 M. Diaz (D)
- 6 A. Monfray (D)
- 8 M. Diop (M)
- 9 J. Le Douaron (F)
- 11 I. Gomis (M)
- 17 A. Mille (M)
- 23 T. Nkada (M)
- 29 D. Karim (M)
- 31 Noah Donkor (D)
- 33 P. Beach (G)
Bench: K. Diawara, H. Konaté, Y. Kone, L. Maronnier, H. Picard, R. Ripart, I. Soukouna, Enisio Carneiro, Lassana Simakha
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Angers or draw | 1.30 | 72.7% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance Estac Troyes or draw | 1.74 | 54.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.8% | +1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Angers | 1.48 | 62.7% | +2.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Estac Troyes | 2.49 | 37.3% | -2.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 76.0% | +5.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.81 | 52.8% | +6.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.89 | 32.4% | +5.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.65 | 56.3% | +4.7 pts |
| Angers over 1.5 team goals | 1.96 | 48.1% | +6.3 pts |
| Estac Troyes over 1.5 team goals | 2.79 | 33.7% | +2.9 pts |
| Angers clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -4.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.31 · 1-0 8.10 · 2-1 8.24 · 2-0 10.30 · 0-1 11.05
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).