AS Roma 2–2 Inter
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.69–2.37.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured AS Roma to win (38%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Inter created the better chances — the xG read 1.7–2.4, with the shot count roughly even (18–16, 4–5 on target). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Inter shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance AS Roma or draw | 1.49 | 63.5% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance Inter or draw | 1.47 | 64.5% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 72.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — AS Roma | 1.86 | 49.7% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Inter | 1.84 | 50.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 80.4% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 59.2% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.37 | 39.5% | +1.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 | 63.0% | +0.5 pts |
| AS Roma over 1.5 team goals | 2.06 | 45.9% | +1.2 pts |
| Inter over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.8% | +0.6 pts |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Inter clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.47 · 1-2 9.17 · 2-1 9.52 · 2-2 10.25 · 0-1 11.46
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 15:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr 26 | Inter | 5-2 | AS Roma |
| 18 Oct 25 | AS Roma | 0-1 | Inter |