Fixture · Serie A · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 17:00 BST
AS Roma
v Inter
The model's read
AS Roma
38%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Inter
36%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance AS Roma or draw | 64.2% |
| Double chance Inter or draw | 62.0% |
| Double chance either team | 73.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.3% |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% |
| AS Roma over 1.5 team goals | 45.8% |
| Inter over 1.5 team goals | 44.1% |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 22.4% |
| Inter clean sheet | 21.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.1% · 2-1 8.5% · 1-2 8.3% · 2-2 6.4% · 1-0 6.3%
Model readiness. AS Roma has played 5 league games this season, Inter 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
AS Roma
36%
market implied · price 2.65
Draw
27%
market implied · price 3.48
Inter
37%
market implied · price 2.54
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance AS Roma or draw | 1.49 | 63.1% | 64.2% | +1.1 |
| Double chance Inter or draw | 1.46 | 64.3% | 62.0% | -2.2 |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.6% | 73.7% | +1.1 |
| Draw no bet — AS Roma | 1.90 | 49.3% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Inter | 1.84 | 50.7% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 79.3% | 81.9% | +2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.64 | 58.2% | 58.7% | +0.5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.50 | 37.6% | 36.3% | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | 1.49 | 62.5% | 62.2% | -0.2 |
| AS Roma over 1.5 team goals | 2.10 | 44.7% | 45.8% | +1.1 |
| Inter over 1.5 team goals | 2.03 | 46.2% | 44.1% | -2.1 |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | 22.4% | -1.0 |
| Inter clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | 21.3% | -2.1 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.60 · 1-2 9.19 · 2-1 9.31 · 2-2 10.56 · 0-1 10.71
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
AS Roma
- AS Roma have won their last 9 league games.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 11 league games (W10 D1).
- AS Roma have won 5 of their last 6 home league games.
- AS Roma have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home league games.
Inter
- Inter are unbeaten in their last 14 league games (W9 D5).
- Inter have won their last 4 league games.
- Inter have averaged 2.3 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Paulo Dybala is averaging a 8.0 match rating over 4 league games this season.
- Donyell Malen has scored 6 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Matías Soulé has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- H. Çalhanoğlu has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Pio Esposito has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Lautaro Martínez has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — AS Roma
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep | W | 2-0 | Torino (A) | 1.9 - 0.8 |
| 10 Sep | D | 1-1 | Fenerbahçe (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 2-1 | Atalanta (H) | 3.0 - 0.7 |
| 31 Aug | W | 4-0 | Lecce (A) | 3.2 - 0.7 |
| 24 Aug | W | 4-0 | Fiorentina (H) | 2.7 - 0.2 |
| 24 May | W | 2-0 | Hellas Verona (A) | 3.4 - 0.8 |
Recent form — Inter
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep | W | 5-3 | Udinese (H) | 3.1 - 0.8 |
| 08 Sep | L | 1-2 | Real Madrid (A) | 1.8 - 2.9 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | Napoli (H) | 3.9 - 2.4 |
| 30 Aug | W | 1-0 | Cagliari (A) | 3.8 - 0.5 |
| 22 Aug | W | 4-1 | Monza (H) | 1.2 - 1.1 |
| 23 May | D | 3-3 | Bologna (A) | 1.8 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
AS Roma
+2.10
xG diff/game · 2.71 for, 0.61 against
Inter
+1.79
xG diff/game · 2.98 for, 1.19 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | Serie A | 2026/27 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 12–1 | WWWW |
| Inter | Serie A | 2026/27 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 13–6 | WWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | home | Serie A | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 3.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Inter | away | Serie A | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 1.0 / 0.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: AS Roma 2 wins, 0 draws, Inter 8 wins — 2.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr 26 | Inter | 5-2 | AS Roma |
| 18 Oct 25 | AS Roma | 0-1 | Inter |