Ascoli 3–1 Avellino
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.06–0.85.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–0.8, shots 15–12 with 6–3 on target. Ascoli got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 6) and Ascoli held 63% of the ball. Ascoli's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.1 xG, 6 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Ascoli 3-5-2
- 1 S. Vitale (G)
- 4 S. Damiani (M)
- 7 A. Silipo (M)
- 8 G. Corradini (M)
- 15 S. D'Uffizi (F)
- 19 A. Guiébré (M)
- 30 M. Curado (D)
- 33 N. Rizzo (D)
- 62 T. Milanese (D)
- 77 D. Bolsius (M)
- 99 Matteo Brunori (F)
Bench: G. Acampora, A. Chakir, G. Crespi, G. De Pieri, F. Gattoni, G. Gori, M. Nicoletti, A. Oliveri, S. Perciun, M. Ricci, L. Lo Scalzo
Avellino 4-3-1-2
- 2 F. Missori (M)
- 4 A. Izzo (D)
- 8 L. Di Maggio (M)
- 9 W. Cheddira (F)
- 10 R. Russo (F)
- 20 M. Palumbo (M)
- 23 M. Venturi (D)
- 27 B. Moruzzi (D)
- 39 M. Besaggio (M)
- 50 T. Martinelli (G)
- 56 P. Enrici (D)
Bench: D. Sounas, M. Sala, L. Pandolfi, L. Palmiero, A. Iannarilli, A. Favilli, G. Faticanti, A. Di Bitonto, T. Biasci, E. Adamo, Thomas Berenbruch, S. Di Paolo
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Ascoli or draw | 1.27 | 73.7% | +1.1 pts |
| Double chance Avellino or draw | 1.69 | 55.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 70.8% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Ascoli | 1.47 | 63.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Avellino | 2.50 | 37.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 70.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 45.7% | -3.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.61 | 25.7% | -3.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.79 | 51.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Ascoli over 1.5 team goals | 2.12 | 44.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Avellino over 1.5 team goals | 3.13 | 29.8% | -2.9 pts |
| Ascoli clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Avellino clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.08 · 1-0 6.99 · 0-0 8.40 · 2-1 8.44 · 2-0 9.54
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 17:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).