Fixture · La Liga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 15:15 BST
Athletic Club
v Alaves
The model's read
Athletic Club
43%
match result
Draw
30%
match result
Alaves
28%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 72.4% |
| Double chance Alaves or draw | 57.2% |
| Double chance either team | 70.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.8% |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 39.9% |
| Alaves over 1.5 team goals | 28.6% |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 34.7% |
| Alaves clean sheet | 25.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.0% · 1-0 10.8% · 0-0 10.1% · 2-1 8.8% · 2-0 8.3%
Model readiness. Athletic Club has played 5 league games this season, Alaves 6 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Athletic Club
57%
market implied · price 1.65
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.74
Alaves
18%
market implied · price 5.30
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 1.15 | 81.7% | 72.4% | -9.3 |
| Double chance Alaves or draw | 2.20 | 42.9% | 57.2% | +14.3 |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.4% | 70.4% | -5.0 |
| Draw no bet — Athletic Club | 1.23 | 75.7% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Alaves | 3.84 | 24.3% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 71.2% | 71.1% | -0.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47.6% | 43.9% | -3.7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.39 | 27.6% | 22.8% | -4.8 |
| Both teams to score | 1.92 | 48.5% | 50.1% | +1.6 |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 1.82 | 51.3% | 39.9% | -11.4 |
| Alaves over 1.5 team goals | 4.24 | 22.1% | 28.6% | +6.5 |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | 34.7% | -9.6 |
| Alaves clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | 25.3% | +6.3 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.01 · 1-1 6.81 · 2-0 7.34 · 2-1 7.93 · 0-0 9.23
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:03 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Alaves +1 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.70 implies a 56% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 75%. A 19-point disagreement.
- Alaves, draw no bet — the market’s price of 3.91 implies a 24% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 41%. A 17-point disagreement.
- Alaves +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 2.27 implies a 42% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 58%. A 17-point disagreement.
- Alaves, draw no bet — the market’s price of 3.84 implies a 24% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 41%. A 16-point disagreement.
- Alaves or the draw — the market’s price of 2.20 implies a 43% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 58%. A 15-point disagreement.
- Athletic Club under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.60 implies a 26% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 40%. A 14-point disagreement.
13 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Athletic Club: another match 3d before (2026-09-16).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Athletic Club
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
Alaves
- Both teams scored in 5 of Alaves's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Unai Simón has made 17 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Robert Navarro has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- I. Williams has 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 league games this season.
- M. Díaz has 3 goals and 3 assists in 6 league games this season.
- L. Boyé has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Sivera has made 17 saves in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Athletic Club
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Elche (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-0 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.4 - 1.0 |
| 30 Aug | W | 2-0 | Celta Vigo (A) | 2.6 - 0.6 |
| 27 Aug | L | 0-2 | Barcelona (A) | 0.2 - 3.9 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-3 | Sevilla (H) | 0.0 - 0.0 |
| 23 May | L | 2-4 | Real Madrid (A) | 0.8 - 1.9 |
Recent form — Alaves
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep | L | 0-1 | Valencia (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Racing Santander (A) | 2.0 - 2.0 |
| 06 Sep | W | 5-2 | Osasuna (H) | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| 28 Aug | W | 1-0 | Villarreal (H) | 0.8 - 1.3 |
| 20 Aug | D | 1-1 | Rayo Vallecano (A) | 1.8 - 0.4 |
| 15 Aug | W | 3-0 | Getafe (H) | 1.8 - 0.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Athletic Club
-0.30
xG diff/game · 1.07 for, 1.37 against
Alaves
+0.41
xG diff/game · 1.53 for, 1.11 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | La Liga | 2026/27 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 7–6 | DWWLL |
| Alaves | La Liga | 2026/27 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 1.667 | 11–6 | LLWWD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1 |
| Alaves | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 1.0 / 1.5 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Athletic Club 5 wins, 3 draws, Alaves 2 wins — 1.9 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 26 | Alaves | 2-4 | Athletic Club |
| 13 Sep 25 | Athletic Club | 0-1 | Alaves |