Athletic Club 0–0 Alaves
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.62–0.05.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Athletic Club to win (44%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Athletic Club created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–0.1 and the shot count agreed (23–2, 6–0 on target). Athletic Club got into the box far more often (8 shots inside it to 0) and Athletic Club held 69% of the ball. Athletic Club's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.6 xG despite 6 of 23 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Athletic Club shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
- 1 Unai Simón (G)
- 4 Aitor Paredes (D)
- 8 Oihan Sancet (M)
- 9 I. Williams (F)
- 10 Nico Williams (M)
- 14 Aymeric Laporte (D)
- 16 Ruíz de Galarreta (M)
- 17 Yuri (D)
- 18 Mikel Jauregizar (M)
- 23 Robert Navarro (M)
- 31 J. Louis-Jean (D)
Bench: Álvaro Djaló, Peio Canales, Álex Berenguer, Jesús Areso, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Álex Padilla, Beñat Prados, Alejandro Rego, Hugo Rincón, Maroan Sannadi, Nico Serrano, Yeray
Alaves 4-4-2
- 1 Sivera (G)
- 2 N. Valentini (D)
- 6 Guevara (M)
- 9 M. Díaz (F)
- 14 N. Tenaglia (D)
- 15 L. Boyé (F)
- 16 V. Koski (D)
- 17 Jonny (D)
- 19 Pablo Ibáñez (M)
- 21 A. Rebbach (M)
- 23 C. Benavídez (M)
Bench: Antonio Blanco, Selu Diallo, Yusi, Izei Hernández, Toni Martínez, Hugo Novoa, X. Olaiz, Angel Pérez, A. Giménez, Miguel Rodríguez, Denis Suárez, Carles Aleñá
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 1.16 | 81.7% | +0.1 pts |
| Double chance Alaves or draw | 2.27 | 41.9% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 76.3% | +0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Athletic Club | 1.23 | 75.9% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Alaves | 3.88 | 24.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.9% | +2.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.9% | +3.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.07 | 30.5% | +2.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 50.5% | +2.1 pts |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 1.73 | 54.5% | +3.1 pts |
| Alaves over 1.5 team goals | 4.02 | 23.4% | +1.4 pts |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 2.25 | 41.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Alaves clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.55 · 1-1 7.05 · 2-0 7.34 · 2-1 7.72 · 3-0 11.90
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 26 | Alaves | 2-4 | Athletic Club |
| 13 Sep 25 | Athletic Club | 0-1 | Alaves |