Birmingham 2–2 Middlesbrough
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.23–2.14.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Middlesbrough to win (36%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Middlesbrough created the better chances — the xG read 1.2–2.1 and the shot count agreed (15–15, 5–4 on target). Middlesbrough got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 7). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Middlesbrough shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Beadle (G)
- 4 C. Klarer (D)
- 5 P. Neumann (D)
- 7 Carlos Vicente (F)
- 14 J. Solis (M)
- 17 L. Millar (F)
- 20 A. Cochrane (D)
- 24 T. Iwata (M)
- 26 B. Osayi-Samuel (D)
- 28 J. Stansfield (F)
- 32 L. Vázquez (F)
Bench: R. Allsop, L. Buchanan, M. Ducksch, D. Fry, E. Laird, K. Lund, M. Mazwi, Paik Seung-Ho, P. Roberts
Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
- 1 R. Vítek (G)
- 2 C. Brittain (D)
- 4 A. Phillips (D)
- 7 W. Lankshear (F)
- 8 R. McGree (M)
- 10 A. Morris (M)
- 11 A. Cozier-Duberry (M)
- 12 L. Ayling (D)
- 14 M. Peart-Harris (M)
- 17 M. Arfsten (F)
- 29 A. Malanda (D)
Bench: K. Joseph, Neto Borges, R. Pukštas, J. Sarmiento, D. Strelec, T. Conway, S. Byram, S. Brynn, S. Berhalter
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 1.52 | 61.4% | +2.0 pts |
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 1.43 | 65.5% | -2.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Birmingham | 1.94 | 47.8% | +3.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Middlesbrough | 1.78 | 52.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.1% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 56.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.57 | 36.2% | +0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.52 | 60.9% | +1.1 pts |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 2.17 | 43.1% | +2.8 pts |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 2.05 | 45.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.78 · 1-2 8.90 · 2-1 9.62 · 0-1 10.15 · 1-0 11.10
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar 26 | Birmingham | 1-3 | Middlesbrough |
| 08 Nov 25 | Middlesbrough | 2-1 | Birmingham |