Fixture · Championship · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 15:00 BST
Birmingham
v Middlesbrough
The model's read
Birmingham
32%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Middlesbrough
39%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 60.7% |
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 68.0% |
| Double chance either team | 71.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 34.9% |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 40.4% |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 24.9% |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 29.2% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.7% · 0-1 8.9% · 1-2 8.6% · 0-0 8.5% · 1-0 7.7%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Birmingham
32%
market implied · price 2.89
Draw
27%
market implied · price 3.49
Middlesbrough
41%
market implied · price 2.29
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 1.58 | 59.5% | 60.7% | +1.2 |
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 1.39 | 67.6% | 68.0% | +0.4 |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.9% | 71.3% | -1.6 |
| Draw no bet — Birmingham | 2.08 | 44.6% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Middlesbrough | 1.68 | 55.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 77.6% | 74.9% | -2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 56.1% | 48.7% | -7.4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.62 | 35.4% | 26.8% | -8.6 |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 | 59.8% | 54.4% | -5.4 |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 2.31 | 40.3% | 34.9% | -5.5 |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 2.01 | 46.3% | 40.4% | -5.9 |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | 24.9% | +1.6 |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | 29.2% | +1.5 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.69 · 1-2 8.89 · 0-1 9.67 · 2-1 10.18 · 1-0 10.71
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:02 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- under 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.69 implies a 55% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 65%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Birmingham under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.38 implies a 39% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 46%. A 7-point disagreement.
- under 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.15 implies a 44% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 50%. A 6-point disagreement.
- Birmingham under 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.56 implies a 60% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 65%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Middlesbrough under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.96 implies a 31% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 36%. A 5-point disagreement.
- at least one side not scoring — the market’s price of 2.30 implies a 40% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 45%. A 5-point disagreement.
1 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Birmingham
- Both teams have scored in each of Birmingham's last 6 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Birmingham's last 6 home league games.
- Birmingham have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W3 D2).
Players in form
- J. Beadle has made 18 saves in 7 league games this season.
- P. Neumann has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- Carlos Vicente has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- W. Lankshear has scored 6 goals in 7 league games this season.
- S. Berhalter has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- A. Cozier-Duberry has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Birmingham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Derby (A) | — |
| 09 Sep | L | 1-2 | Norwich (A) | 1.6 - 1.0 |
| 06 Sep | D | 2-2 | Wolves (H) | 1.4 - 1.9 |
| 01 Sep | D | 1-1 | Southampton (H) | 1.6 - 1.0 |
| 28 Aug | W | 2-1 | Wrexham (A) | 1.9 - 1.4 |
| 22 Aug | D | 2-2 | Bristol City (H) | 0.7 - 1.2 |
Recent form — Middlesbrough
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep | D | 2-2 | Millwall (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | W | 4-3 | Norwich (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 1-0 | QPR (A) | 2.5 - 1.0 |
| 02 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (A) | 1.2 - 0.6 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-1 | West Brom (H) | 2.5 - 1.3 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-2 | Blackburn (A) | 0.5 - 0.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Birmingham
+0.13
xG diff/game · 1.29 for, 1.16 against
Middlesbrough
+0.96
xG diff/game · 1.81 for, 0.85 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Championship | 2026/27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 10–9 | WLDDW |
| Middlesbrough | Championship | 2026/27 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 14–10 | DWWDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-3-0 | 1.7 / 1.7 | 0 |
| Middlesbrough | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Birmingham 2 wins, 0 draws, Middlesbrough 8 wins — 2.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar 26 | Birmingham | 1-3 | Middlesbrough |
| 08 Nov 25 | Middlesbrough | 2-1 | Birmingham |