Bologna 1–1 Torino
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.55–0.78.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Bologna to win (41%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 30% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.8, shots 11–13 with 1–3 on target. A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bologna or draw | 1.23 | 76.9% | +0.7 pts |
| Double chance Torino or draw | 1.85 | 51.1% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 72.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bologna | 1.39 | 66.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Torino | 2.79 | 33.2% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 69.3% | -1.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.16 | 44.2% | -2.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.84 | 24.4% | -2.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 48.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Bologna over 1.5 team goals | 2.10 | 44.7% | -1.5 pts |
| Torino over 1.5 team goals | 3.67 | 25.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Bologna clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Torino clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.16 · 1-0 6.22 · 2-1 8.20 · 2-0 8.35 · 0-0 8.80
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 12:31 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 26 | Torino | 1-2 | Bologna |
| 29 Oct 25 | Bologna | 0-0 | Torino |