Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 FSV Mainz 05
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–4; by chance quality the match ran 3.24–2.82.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 39% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Borussia Mönchengladbach created the better chances — the xG read 3.2–2.8 and the shot count agreed (21–17, 7–8 on target). FSV Mainz 05's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.8 xG, 8 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 3–4 flatters FSV Mainz 05 — on chances created, Borussia Mönchengladbach shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4-2-1
- 1 M. Nicolas (G)
- 3 I. Lidberg (F)
- 4 K. Diks (D)
- 5 J. Leszczyński (D)
- 6 K. Itakura (D)
- 9 F. Honorat (M)
- 10 F. Neuhaus (M)
- 16 P. Sander (M)
- 26 L. Ullrich (M)
- 29 J. Scally (M)
- 38 H. Bolin (M)
Bench: D. Batz, F. Chiarodia, R. Hack, D. Hashioka, D. Herold, S. Machino, W. Mohya, M. Nguefack, K. Stöger
FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
- 1 A. Schwolow (G)
- 2 P. Mwene (M)
- 3 F. Gruber (D)
- 4 S. Posch (D)
- 6 K. Sano (M)
- 7 Lee Jae-Sung (M)
- 9 P. Tietz (F)
- 10 N. Amiri (M)
- 19 A. Caci (M)
- 23 S. Becker (F)
- 48 K. Potulski (D)
Bench: S. Bell, D. da Costa, B. Hollerbach, M. Kinzig, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, E. Martel, R. Nakuzola, O. Ruoppi
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw | 1.65 | 57.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 1.38 | 68.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.16 | 43.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — FSV Mainz 05 | 1.65 | 56.6% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 83.8% | +2.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 64.7% | +3.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.13 | 44.8% | +4.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.38 | 67.2% | +3.3 pts |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.5 team goals | 2.03 | 46.3% | +2.6 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals | 1.72 | 54.6% | +3.2 pts |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -1.8 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.44 · 1-2 8.89 · 2-2 10.15 · 2-1 10.38 · 0-1 11.95
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1-1 | FSV Mainz 05 |
| 05 Dec 25 | FSV Mainz 05 | 0-1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach |