Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 14:30 BST

Borussia Mönchengladbach
v FSV Mainz 05

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The model's read

Borussia Mönchengladbach

41%

match result

Draw

26%

match result

FSV Mainz 05

33%

match result

Market	Model probability
Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw	66.8%
Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw	58.9%
Double chance either team	74.3%
Over 1.5 goals	83.2%
Over 2.5 goals	60.8%
Over 3.5 goals	38.5%
Both teams to score	63.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.5 team goals	49.5%
FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals	43.5%
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet	22.8%
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet	18.9%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.7% · 2-1 8.8% · 1-2 7.9% · 2-2 6.5% · 1-0 6.1%

Model readiness. Borussia Mönchengladbach has played 3 league games this season, FSV Mainz 05 3 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

The market’s read

Borussia Mönchengladbach

32%

market implied · price 2.91

Draw

26%

market implied · price 3.67

FSV Mainz 05

42%

market implied · price 2.24

Market	Consensus price	Implied chance	Model	Gap
Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw	1.64	57.7%	66.8%	+9.1
Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw	1.39	67.8%	58.9%	-8.9
Double chance either team	1.27	74.5%	74.3%	-0.2
Draw no bet — Borussia Mönchengladbach	2.15	43.6%	—	—
Draw no bet — FSV Mainz 05	1.66	56.4%	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.15	81.1%	83.2%	+2.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.52	61.4%	60.8%	-0.7
Over 3.5 goals	2.34	40.8%	38.5%	-2.4
Both teams to score	1.46	63.9%	63.6%	-0.3
Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.5 team goals	2.15	43.8%	49.5%	+5.8
FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals	1.83	51.3%	43.5%	-7.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet	5.00	19.0%	22.8%	+3.8
FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet	4.00	23.4%	18.9%	-4.4

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.17 · 1-2 8.79 · 2-1 9.79 · 2-2 10.29 · 0-1 10.98

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.

Where the model disagrees with the market

From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.

Borussia Mönchengladbach, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.21 implies a 43% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 51%. A 7-point disagreement.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.15 implies a 44% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 51%. A 7-point disagreement.
Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.66 implies a 57% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 63%. A 6-point disagreement.
Borussia Mönchengladbach winning — the market’s price of 2.91 implies a 32% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 38%. A 5-point disagreement.
Borussia Mönchengladbach or the draw — the market’s price of 1.64 implies a 58% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 63%. A 5-point disagreement.
Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 2.87 implies a 33% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 38%. A 5-point disagreement.

2 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.

Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge — the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.