Brighton 3–0 Arsenal
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.31–1.63.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Arsenal to win (37%); it finished with Brighton to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 35% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.3–1.6, shots 17–11 with 5–2 on target. Brighton's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.3 xG, 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Brighton or draw | 2.12 | 44.8% | -0.0 pts |
| Double chance Arsenal or draw | 1.20 | 79.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 76.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Brighton | 3.43 | 27.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Arsenal | 1.29 | 72.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 77.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 54.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.77 | 33.8% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Brighton over 1.5 team goals | 3.33 | 28.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Arsenal over 1.5 team goals | 1.71 | 55.2% | +1.1 pts |
| Brighton clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +2.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.15 · 0-1 7.72 · 1-2 7.78 · 0-2 8.47 · 0-0 11.75
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar 26 | Brighton | 0-1 | Arsenal |
| 27 Dec 25 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Brighton |