Fixture · Premier League · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 15:00 BST
Brighton
v Arsenal
The model's read
Brighton
33%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Arsenal
38%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Brighton or draw | 62.0% |
| Double chance Arsenal or draw | 67.0% |
| Double chance either team | 71.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.1% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% |
| Brighton over 1.5 team goals | 35.2% |
| Arsenal over 1.5 team goals | 38.9% |
| Brighton clean sheet | 26.0% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 28.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.8% · 0-1 8.9% · 0-0 8.8% · 1-2 8.5% · 1-0 8.1%
Model readiness. Brighton has played 4 league games this season, Arsenal 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Brighton
21%
market implied · price 4.56
Draw
24%
market implied · price 3.86
Arsenal
55%
market implied · price 1.73
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Brighton or draw | 2.11 | 44.8% | 62.0% | +17.2 |
| Double chance Arsenal or draw | 1.19 | 79.3% | 67.0% | -12.4 |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.9% | 71.1% | -4.8 |
| Draw no bet — Brighton | 3.36 | 27.8% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Arsenal | 1.29 | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.7% | 74.2% | -1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 54.0% | 47.8% | -6.2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.82 | 33.2% | 26.1% | -7.1 |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.4% | 53.8% | -0.6 |
| Brighton over 1.5 team goals | 3.26 | 28.8% | 35.2% | +6.4 |
| Arsenal over 1.5 team goals | 1.73 | 54.2% | 38.9% | -15.2 |
| Brighton clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | 26.0% | +8.9 |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | 28.9% | -6.5 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.13 · 0-1 7.44 · 1-2 7.75 · 0-2 8.55 · 0-0 12.37
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:01 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Brighton +1 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.64 implies a 58% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 77%. A 19-point disagreement.
- Brighton, draw no bet — the market’s price of 3.36 implies a 28% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 46%. An 18-point disagreement.
- Brighton, draw no bet — the market’s price of 3.36 implies a 28% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 46%. An 18-point disagreement.
- Arsenal under 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.51 implies a 62% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 80%. A 17-point disagreement.
- Brighton +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 2.14 implies a 44% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 62%. A 17-point disagreement.
- Brighton or the draw — the market’s price of 2.11 implies a 45% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 62%. A 17-point disagreement.
15 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Brighton
- 5 of Brighton's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Brighton have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Arsenal
- Arsenal have won their last 9 league games.
- Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 away league games.
- Arsenal have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- P. Groß has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- M. Yalcouyé has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- M. De Cuyper has 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 league games this season.
- B. Saka has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- M. Ødegaard has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- K. Havertz has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Brighton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | W | 5-0 | Coventry (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Leeds (H) | 2.2 - 2.5 |
| 30 Aug | L | 3-4 | Chelsea (A) | 1.5 - 3.0 |
| 23 Aug | W | 4-0 | Aston Villa (H) | 3.6 - 0.3 |
| 24 May | L | 0-3 | Manchester United (H) | 0.8 - 1.7 |
| 17 May | L | 0-1 | Leeds (A) | 3.1 - 0.4 |
Recent form — Arsenal
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | W | 2-0 | Sunderland (A) | — |
| 09 Sep | W | 1-0 | Napoli (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | W | 2-1 | Chelsea (H) | 2.0 - 0.4 |
| 31 Aug | W | 1-0 | Aston Villa (A) | 1.1 - 0.3 |
| 21 Aug | W | 3-0 | Coventry (H) | 1.8 - 0.2 |
| 24 May | W | 2-1 | Crystal Palace (A) | 2.5 - 1.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Brighton
+0.50
xG diff/game · 2.43 for, 1.92 against
Arsenal
+1.32
xG diff/game · 1.62 for, 0.30 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | Premier League | 2026/27 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 13–5 | WDLW |
| Arsenal | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 8–1 | WWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.5 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Arsenal | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Brighton 2 wins, 2 draws, Arsenal 6 wins — 2.8 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar 26 | Brighton | 0-1 | Arsenal |
| 27 Dec 25 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Brighton |