Burnley 1–1 Derby
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.45–1.75.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Burnley to win (50%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Derby created the better chances — the xG read 0.5–1.8 and the shot count agreed (6–16, 2–6 on target). Derby got into the box far more often (9 shots inside it to 4). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Derby shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Burnley 4-4-2
- 3 Max Alleyne (D)
- 5 R. Hatate (M)
- 7 J. Bruun Larsen (F)
- 10 M. Edwards (M)
- 11 Z. Amdouni (F)
- 14 C. Roberts (D)
- 15 A. Ahmedhodžić (D)
- 23 Lucas Pires (M)
- 29 J. Laurent (M)
- 37 G. Coudert (G)
- 44 Igor (D)
Bench: J. Vardy, K. Walker, A. Broja, H. Ekdal, A. Hountondji, U. Raghouber, L. Ramazani, O. Sonne, M. Weiß
Derby 4-4-2
- 4 D. Ozoh (M)
- 6 S. Langås (D)
- 8 B. Clark (M)
- 9 C. Morris (F)
- 11 S. Szmodics (F)
- 18 C. Taylor (D)
- 20 A. Mowatt (M)
- 23 J. Ward (D)
- 26 R. Hedges (M)
- 28 D. Sanderson (D)
- 31 J. Vickers (G)
Bench: R. Brewster, O. Fraulo, M. Fuseini, M. Johnston, R. O'Donnell, L. Salvesen, L. Travis, C. Blackett-Taylor, Raymond Offor
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Burnley or draw | 1.21 | 77.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance Derby or draw | 1.94 | 48.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Burnley | 1.35 | 69.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Derby | 3.05 | 30.6% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 74.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 52.1% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.94 | 31.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.4% | +0.8 pts |
| Burnley over 1.5 team goals | 1.84 | 50.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 3.24 | 28.8% | +0.6 pts |
| Burnley clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Derby clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.67 · 1-0 7.42 · 2-1 7.96 · 2-0 8.84 · 0-0 11.15
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).