Burnley
v Derby
The preview
Burnley have taken 3 points from 7 games this season (LDLDL) and are winless in their last 7 league outings, with both teams scoring in each of those matches and Burnley conceding in every one. Derby sit on 4 points (LLLWL) and have lost their last three, though five of their last six away league games have gone over 2.5 goals. At home Burnley have drawn two of three without a win; Derby have one win from three away. J. Widell Zetterström has made 28 saves in 7 games, M. Weiß 16 in 7, while Clark, Szmodics and Flemming have each scored twice. The model rates Burnley's win at 49%, the draw at 27%, Derby's win at 24%, over 2.5 goals at 50%, and both teams to score at 54%.
Machine-written from our own data — recorded results, the table and the model’s probabilities — and checked line by line: every number must come from that data, and it describes what has happened, not what will. Not a tip · written 16 Sep 09:35 BST.
The model's read
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Burnley or draw | 73.2% |
| Double chance Derby or draw | 55.1% |
| Double chance either team | 71.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% |
| Burnley over 1.5 team goals | 44.0% |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 30.2% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 33.2% |
| Derby clean sheet | 22.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.5% · 1-0 9.9% · 2-1 9.2% · 0-0 8.7% · 2-0 8.3%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Burnley or draw | 1.20 | 77.6% | 73.2% | -4.4 |
| Double chance Derby or draw | 1.95 | 47.9% | 55.1% | +7.1 |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 74.5% | 71.7% | -2.8 |
| Draw no bet — Burnley | 1.34 | 69.6% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Derby | 3.07 | 30.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 74.0% | 74.4% | +0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.84 | 51.2% | 48.1% | -3.2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.02 | 30.9% | 26.3% | -4.6 |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 53.7% | 53.0% | -0.6 |
| Burnley over 1.5 team goals | 1.83 | 50.8% | 44.0% | -6.8 |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 3.30 | 28.2% | 30.2% | +2.0 |
| Burnley clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | 33.2% | -2.3 |
| Derby clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | 22.5% | +3.5 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.74 · 1-0 7.26 · 2-1 8.01 · 2-0 8.77 · 0-0 10.70
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:02 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Derby +1 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.52 implies a 62% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 70%. An 8-point disagreement.
- Derby +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 2.02 implies a 47% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 55%. An 8-point disagreement.
- Derby, draw no bet — the market’s price of 3.10 implies a 30% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 37%. A 7-point disagreement.
- Derby or the draw — the market’s price of 1.95 implies a 48% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 55%. A 7-point disagreement.
- Burnley under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.44 implies a 27% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 33%. A 7-point disagreement.
- Derby, draw no bet — the market’s price of 3.07 implies a 30% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 37%. A 7-point disagreement.
4 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Availability and rotation
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Burnley
- Burnley are winless in their last 7 league games (D3 L4).
- Both teams have scored in each of Burnley's last 7 league games.
- Burnley have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Derby
- Derby have lost their last 3 league games.
- 5 of Derby's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- M. Weiß has made 16 saves in 7 league games this season.
- Zian Flemming has scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
- J. Widell Zetterström has made 28 saves in 7 league games this season.
- B. Clark has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- S. Szmodics has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Burnley
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 1-3 | Swansea (A) | — |
| 08 Sep | D | 1-1 | Wrexham (A) | 1.5 - 1.3 |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-2 | Bristol City (H) | 0.3 - 1.1 |
| 02 Sep | D | 1-1 | Middlesbrough (H) | 0.6 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-4 | Norwich (A) | 1.4 - 2.3 |
| 23 Aug | L | 1-3 | West Brom (A) | 1.1 - 1.6 |
Recent form — Derby
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Birmingham (H) | — |
| 09 Sep | L | 0-1 | West Brom (H) | 1.3 - 0.4 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-3 | West Ham (A) | 0.1 - 3.8 |
| 01 Sep | W | 2-0 | Portsmouth (A) | 0.6 - 0.8 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-3 | Swansea (H) | 0.7 - 3.0 |
| 22 Aug | D | 2-2 | Cardiff (H) | 1.3 - 1.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | Championship | 2026/27 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 0.429 | 8–16 | LDLDL |
| Derby | Championship | 2026/27 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 0.571 | 6–13 | LLLWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-2-1 | 1.3 / 1.7 | 0 |
| Derby | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-0-2 | 1.0 / 1.7 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Burnley 6 wins, 4 draws, Derby 0 wins — 1.8 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.