Cardiff
v Charlton
The preview
Cardiff host Charlton on Saturday with both sides short on recent wins. Cardiff are winless in their last seven league games, drawing four and losing three, and have conceded in each of those matches; at home this season they have played three and drawn all three. Charlton have failed to score in their last three league outings and are winless in four, though they sit on 12 points from seven games against Cardiff's four, with one win from three away fixtures this season. N. Trott has made 25 saves in seven league games, while Cian Ashford and L. Jones have each scored twice in seven appearances. The model rates Cardiff's win at 50%, the draw at 27% and Charlton's win at 23%, with both teams to score rated at 53%.
Machine-written from our own data — recorded results, the table and the model’s probabilities — and checked line by line: every number must come from that data, and it describes what has happened, not what will. Not a tip · written 16 Sep 09:35 BST.
The model's read
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Cardiff or draw | 76.8% |
| Double chance Charlton or draw | 51.8% |
| Double chance either team | 71.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.2% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% |
| Cardiff over 1.5 team goals | 43.8% |
| Charlton over 1.5 team goals | 25.0% |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 38.2% |
| Charlton clean sheet | 22.6% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.6% · 1-0 11.6% · 0-0 9.9% · 2-0 9.6% · 2-1 9.2%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Cardiff or draw | 1.19 | 78.3% | 76.8% | -1.4 |
| Double chance Charlton or draw | 2.10 | 44.6% | 51.8% | +7.2 |
| Double chance either team | 1.21 | 77.1% | 71.4% | -5.8 |
| Draw no bet — Cardiff | 1.30 | 71.6% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Charlton | 3.28 | 28.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 78.9% | 71.5% | -7.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 58.4% | 44.3% | -14.1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.53 | 36.9% | 23.2% | -13.7 |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 57.8% | 49.1% | -8.7 |
| Cardiff over 1.5 team goals | 1.63 | 57.2% | 43.8% | -13.3 |
| Charlton over 1.5 team goals | 2.98 | 31.2% | 25.0% | -6.2 |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | 38.2% | +2.8 |
| Charlton clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | 22.6% | +6.8 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.54 · 2-1 7.87 · 1-0 8.28 · 2-0 9.02 · 3-1 12.22
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:01 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- under 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.76 implies a 53% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 70%. A 17-point disagreement.
- Cardiff under 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.59 implies a 58% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 75%. A 17-point disagreement.
- under 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.26 implies a 42% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 56%. A 14-point disagreement.
- Cardiff under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 4.55 implies a 20% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 34%. A 13-point disagreement.
- Cardiff under 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.18 implies a 43% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 56%. A 13-point disagreement.
- under 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.46 implies a 26% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 39%. A 13-point disagreement.
11 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Availability and rotation
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Cardiff
- Cardiff are winless in their last 7 league games (D4 L3).
- Cardiff have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Charlton
- Charlton have failed to score in their last 3 league games.
- Charlton are winless in their last 4 league games (D3 L1).
Players in form
- N. Trott has made 25 saves in 7 league games this season.
- Cian Ashford has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- L. Jones has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- Tyreece Campbell has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- A. Okonkwo has made 14 saves in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Cardiff
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 0-1 | Bolton (A) | — |
| 08 Sep | D | 1-1 | Stoke City (H) | 2.9 - 0.8 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-2 | Portsmouth (A) | 1.4 - 2.1 |
| 02 Sep | L | 1-2 | QPR (A) | 0.6 - 2.1 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Sheffield Utd (H) | 2.2 - 1.3 |
| 22 Aug | D | 2-2 | Derby (A) | 1.7 - 1.3 |
Recent form — Charlton
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Portsmouth (H) | — |
| 09 Sep | D | 0-0 | QPR (H) | 0.5 - 1.1 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-4 | Stoke City (A) | 0.6 - 2.1 |
| 02 Sep | D | 1-1 | West Brom (A) | 0.4 - 0.6 |
| 29 Aug | W | 1-0 | Preston (H) | 0.7 - 1.3 |
| 22 Aug | W | 1-0 | West Ham (A) | 0.3 - 0.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | Championship | 2026/27 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 0.571 | 7–11 | LDLLD |
| Charlton | Championship | 2026/27 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 1.714 | 6–7 | DDLDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-3-0 | 1.3 / 1.3 | 0 |
| Charlton | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 8 meetings: Cardiff 1 wins, 5 draws, Charlton 2 wins — 2.62 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.