Castellón 5–0 Tenerife
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 5–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.35–1.35.
The brain read
Castellón created the better chances — the xG read 2.4–1.4, with the shot count roughly even (9–12, 5–4 on target). Castellón held 64% of the ball. Castellón's finishing ran hot — 5 from 2.4 xG, 5 of 9 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 5–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Castellón 4-4-2
- 2 Juanjo Nieto (D)
- 4 A. Sienra (D)
- 5 Alberto Jiménez (D)
- 6 M. Orozco (M)
- 8 Barri (M)
- 9 Ousmane Camara (F)
- 10 Israel Suero (F)
- 13 R. Matthys (G)
- 14 Iñigo Córdoba (M)
- 16 A. Jakobsen (M)
- 22 J. Mellot (D)
Bench: Hamza Bellari, F. Castillo, J. Vlak, F. Ceccherini, Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira Rêgo, A. Gala, Varo García, Álvaro Martín, A. Saipi, Pablo Santiago, Raúl Sánchez, Lucas Alcázar
Tenerife 4-4-2
- 1 Dani Martín (G)
- 2 David Rodríguez (D)
- 4 José León (D)
- 5 Jorge Moreno (D)
- 6 Juanjo (M)
- 8 Víctor Moreno (F)
- 12 A. Landázuri (D)
- 15 Fabricio (M)
- 17 C. Gomis (F)
- 21 Marc Mateu (M)
- 24 Iván Chapela (M)
Bench: Daniel Fernández, Enric Gallego, R. Jureškin, A. Krdžalić, Gabriel Lozano, Noel López, M. Pečar, M. Pittón, Gerard Valentín, N. Viereck, De Miguel, César Álvarez
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Castellón or draw | 1.10 | 85.4% | +2.7 pts |
| Double chance Tenerife or draw | 2.62 | 36.0% | -3.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.20 | 78.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Castellón | 1.15 | 81.6% | +4.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Tenerife | 5.10 | 18.4% | -4.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 74.2% | -3.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 51.0% | -5.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.11 | 29.8% | -5.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.96 | 47.1% | -6.5 pts |
| Castellón over 1.5 team goals | 1.62 | 57.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Tenerife over 1.5 team goals | 4.41 | 21.1% | -4.7 pts |
| Castellón clean sheet | 2.20 | 42.4% | +1.3 pts |
| Tenerife clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | +1.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.01 · 2-0 6.38 · 2-1 7.54 · 1-1 7.54 · 3-0 9.40
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).