Celta Vigo 5–0 Racing Santander
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 5–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.14–0.75.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Celta Vigo to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 43% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Celta Vigo created the better chances — the xG read 2.1–0.8 and the shot count agreed (13–11, 9–5 on target). Celta Vigo's finishing ran hot — 5 from 2.1 xG, 9 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 5–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Celta Vigo 3-4-3
- 6 I. Moriba (M)
- 8 Miguel Román (M)
- 9 Ferran Jutglà (F)
- 13 I. Radu (G)
- 15 Álvaro Núñez (D)
- 16 Hugo González (F)
- 17 Javi Rueda (M)
- 18 Yoel Lago (D)
- 19 W. Swedberg (F)
- 21 S. Cáceres (D)
- 23 Hugo Álvarez (M)
Bench: A. Bayındır, C. Starfelt, Javi Rodríguez, Borja Iglesias, Javi Galán, Aleix Febas, A. Faye, Pablo Durán, C. Driouech, Sergio Carreira, H. Burcio, Marcos Alonso
Racing Santander 4-2-3-1
- 2 Álvaro Mantilla (D)
- 5 Pablo Ramón (D)
- 8 André Almeida (M)
- 10 Iñigo Vicente (M)
- 13 Julen Agirrezabala (G)
- 15 Pablo García (M)
- 17 Jorge Salinas (D)
- 19 Iker Luque (M)
- 21 M. Zabiri (F)
- 23 Iván Martín (M)
- 24 J. Belocian (D)
Bench: M. Gueye, Facundo González, Laro Gómez, Sergio Canales, Juan Carlos Arana, G. Guliashvili, Manu Hernando, Aarón Martín, Pedro Felipe, M. Prati, Íñigo Sainz-Maza, Asier Villalibre
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Celta Vigo or draw | 1.22 | 77.5% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance Racing Santander or draw | 2.00 | 47.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 75.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Celta Vigo | 1.34 | 69.9% | +0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Racing Santander | 3.12 | 30.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 76.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 55.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.70 | 34.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 56.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 team goals | 1.74 | 54.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Racing Santander over 1.5 team goals | 3.08 | 30.6% | -1.9 pts |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Racing Santander clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.94 · 2-1 7.74 · 1-0 7.94 · 2-0 9.16 · 2-2 12.60
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).