Fixture · 2. Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 19:30 BST
Dynamo Dresden
v Hertha BSC
The model's read
Dynamo Dresden
39%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Hertha BSC
35%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Dynamo Dresden or draw | 65.5% |
| Double chance Hertha BSC or draw | 60.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% |
| Dynamo Dresden over 1.5 team goals | 47.2% |
| Hertha BSC over 1.5 team goals | 43.6% |
| Dynamo Dresden clean sheet | 22.8% |
| Hertha BSC clean sheet | 20.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.0% · 2-1 8.7% · 1-2 8.1% · 2-2 6.4% · 1-0 6.3%
Model readiness. Dynamo Dresden has played 5 league games this season, Hertha BSC 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Dynamo Dresden
38%
market implied · price 2.46
Draw
24%
market implied · price 3.84
Hertha BSC
38%
market implied · price 2.41
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Dynamo Dresden or draw | 1.51 | 61.9% | 65.5% | +3.6 |
| Double chance Hertha BSC or draw | 1.50 | 62.3% | 60.7% | -1.6 |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 75.9% | 73.9% | -2.0 |
| Draw no bet — Dynamo Dresden | 1.87 | 49.9% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Hertha BSC | 1.86 | 50.1% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 83.7% | 82.2% | -1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 65.3% | 59.2% | -6.1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 44.6% | 36.9% | -7.7 |
| Both teams to score | 1.39 | 66.8% | 62.6% | -4.2 |
| Dynamo Dresden over 1.5 team goals | 1.84 | 50.5% | 47.2% | -3.3 |
| Hertha BSC over 1.5 team goals | 1.81 | 51.4% | 43.6% | -7.8 |
| Dynamo Dresden clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | 22.8% | +3.8 |
| Hertha BSC clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | 20.4% | +1.4 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.94 · 1-2 9.48 · 2-1 9.56 · 2-2 10.64 · 1-0 13.22
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:05 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Dynamo Dresden
- Dynamo Dresden are winless in their last 3 league games (D1 L2).
- Dynamo Dresden have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Hertha BSC
- Hertha BSC have won their last 6 league games.
- Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 9 league games (W8 D1).
- Hertha BSC have won 5 of their last 6 away league games.
- 5 of Hertha BSC's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- J. Sterner has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- T. Schreiber has made 11 saves in 3 league games this season.
- Josip Brekalo has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Sebastian Grønning has scored 2 goals in 3 league games this season.
- Marten Winkler has 1 goal and 2 assists in 2 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Dynamo Dresden
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 2-2 | Eintracht Braunschweig (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-2 | VfL Bochum (H) | 1.8 - 1.4 |
| 29 Aug | L | 3-5 | 1. FC Heidenheim (A) | 1.5 - 3.2 |
| 16 Aug | W | 1-0 | SV Darmstadt 98 (H) | 0.6 - 0.4 |
| 09 Aug | L | 0-3 | 1. FC Nürnberg (A) | 1.2 - 2.1 |
| 21 Mar | L | 1-2 | SC Paderborn 07 (A) | 1.3 - 2.5 |
Recent form — Hertha BSC
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | W | 3-1 | VfL Osnabrück (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | W | 2-1 | 1. FC Magdeburg (H) | 1.3 - 0.9 |
| 28 Aug | W | 5-3 | Eintracht Braunschweig (A) | 3.5 - 2.2 |
| 15 Aug | W | 4-1 | 1. FC Heidenheim (H) | 2.0 - 1.0 |
| 07 Aug | W | 1-0 | VfL Bochum (A) | 0.6 - 1.0 |
| 22 Mar | W | 5-2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf (A) | 1.9 - 1.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Dynamo Dresden
-0.49
xG diff/game · 1.30 for, 1.79 against
Hertha BSC
+0.58
xG diff/game · 1.85 for, 1.27 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Dresden | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 7–12 | DLLWL |
| Hertha BSC | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 15–6 | WWWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Dresden | home | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Hertha BSC | away | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 3.0 / 1.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 5 meetings: Dynamo Dresden 1 wins, 1 draws, Hertha BSC 3 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov 25 | Hertha BSC | 2-0 | Dynamo Dresden |