Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 14:30 BST

Eintracht Frankfurt
v SC Freiburg

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The model's read

Eintracht Frankfurt

43%

match result

Draw

27%

match result

SC Freiburg

30%

match result

Market	Model probability
Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw	70.0%
Double chance SC Freiburg or draw	57.1%
Double chance either team	72.9%
Over 1.5 goals	78.9%
Over 2.5 goals	54.3%
Over 3.5 goals	32.0%
Both teams to score	58.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 team goals	46.5%
SC Freiburg over 1.5 team goals	36.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet	27.7%
SC Freiburg clean sheet	20.8%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.8% · 2-1 9.1% · 1-0 7.9% · 1-2 7.5% · 2-0 7.1%

Model readiness. Eintracht Frankfurt has played 3 league games this season, SC Freiburg 3 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

The market’s read

Eintracht Frankfurt

40%

market implied · price 2.33

Draw

25%

market implied · price 3.76

SC Freiburg

35%

market implied · price 2.72

Market	Consensus price	Implied chance	Model	Gap
Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw	1.42	66.3%	70.0%	+3.7
Double chance SC Freiburg or draw	1.60	58.9%	57.1%	-1.9
Double chance either team	1.26	74.8%	72.9%	-1.8
Draw no bet — Eintracht Frankfurt	1.73	54.2%	—	—
Draw no bet — SC Freiburg	2.05	45.8%	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	1.12	83.0%	78.9%	-4.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.44	65.1%	54.3%	-10.8
Over 3.5 goals	2.14	44.6%	32.0%	-12.7
Both teams to score	1.39	66.8%	58.4%	-8.4
Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 team goals	1.75	53.6%	46.5%	-7.0
SC Freiburg over 1.5 team goals	1.93	48.6%	36.7%	-11.9
Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet	4.50	20.8%	27.7%	+7.0
SC Freiburg clean sheet	5.50	17.2%	20.8%	+3.6

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.48 · 2-1 9.16 · 1-2 9.84 · 2-2 10.24 · 1-0 12.70

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.

Where the model disagrees with the market

From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.

SC Freiburg under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.32 implies a 28% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 44%. A 16-point disagreement.
under 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.14 implies a 44% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 59%. A 15-point disagreement.
under 3.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.73 implies a 55% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 68%. A 13-point disagreement.
SC Freiburg under 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.83 implies a 51% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 64%. A 13-point disagreement.
under 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.68 implies a 35% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 46%. An 11-point disagreement.
Eintracht Frankfurt under 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.53 implies a 62% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 72%. A 10-point disagreement.

9 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.

Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge — the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.

Availability and rotation

No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.

Hot stats & streaks

Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.