Eldense 1–2 Eibar
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.69–0.87.
The brain read
Eldense created the better chances — the xG read 1.7–0.9 and the shot count agreed (24–8, 6–4 on target). Eldense got into the box far more often (9 shots inside it to 3) and Eldense held 64% of the ball. Eibar's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 4 of 8 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–2 flatters Eibar — on chances created, Eldense shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Eldense 4-2-3-1
- 1 Ramón Vila (G)
- 4 F. Smand (D)
- 5 Alex Serradell (D)
- 10 Fidel (M)
- 11 Manu Nieto (F)
- 12 Roberto López (M)
- 14 J. Smith (M)
- 15 Carlos Guirao (M)
- 19 A. Ibarrondo (D)
- 21 D. Ruiz (D)
- 33 Aingeru Olabarrieta (M)
Bench: J. Yanda, D. Bernabeu, Jesús Clemente, Juanpa, Juan Larios, Guillermo Macho, Javi Martínez, Jorge Rastrojo, Iker Recio, Waldo Rubio, Dinis Rodrigues
Eibar 4-2-3-1
- 4 Unai Elgezabal (D)
- 7 Malcom Adu (M)
- 8 Ander Madariaga (M)
- 9 Jon Bautista (F)
- 11 Jon Magunazelaia (M)
- 13 Jon Mikel (G)
- 21 Iván Gil (M)
- 22 Álvaro Rodríguez (D)
- 23 Anaitz Arbilla (D)
- 24 Juan Bernat (D)
- 30 Aleix Garrido (M)
Bench: Elijah Gift Izobodo John, Jon Guruzeta, Javi Martón, Pejiño, Imanol García de Albéniz, Sergio Cubero, M. Arana, Jair Amador, Lucas Nuñez, Luis López
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Eldense or draw | 1.51 | 62.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Double chance Eibar or draw | 1.37 | 68.5% | +1.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.35 | 69.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Eldense | 1.99 | 46.8% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Eibar | 1.75 | 53.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.34 | 69.0% | -0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 44.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.73 | 24.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.82 | 50.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Eldense over 1.5 team goals | 2.87 | 32.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Eibar over 1.5 team goals | 2.56 | 36.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Eldense clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Eibar clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.54 · 0-1 7.04 · 0-0 7.50 · 1-0 7.72 · 1-2 9.20
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).