Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Köln
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.45–1.41.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Hamburger SV to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 39% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.4–1.4, shots 12–18 with 7–5 on target. 1. FC Köln got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 7). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1
- 1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes (G)
- 3 D. Møller Wolfe (M)
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga (M)
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi (M)
- 9 T. Moffi (F)
- 11 A. Grønbæk (M)
- 17 W. Omari (D)
- 20 Fábio Vieira (M)
- 21 N. Remberg (M)
- 23 J. Torunarigha (D)
- 24 N. Capaldo (D)
Bench: Otto Emerson Stange, S. Tangvik, M. Adeline, P. Daka, B. Jatta, L. Lemke, B. Nadir, S. Nandja, Y. Poulsen
1. FC Köln 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Schwäbe (G)
- 5 T. Krauß (M)
- 6 E. Skhiri (M)
- 10 S. El Mala (M)
- 14 G. Mensah (D)
- 17 A. Castro-Montes (D)
- 22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey (D)
- 24 L. Lochoshvili (D)
- 27 T. Dallinga (F)
- 37 L. Maina (M)
- 47 M. Moore (M)
Bench: M. Bülter, Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson, J. Schmied, S. Sebulonsen, B. Sosa, J. Thielmann, L. Waldschmidt, R. Zieler, R. Ache
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Hamburger SV or draw | 1.52 | 61.8% | +0.6 pts |
| Double chance 1. FC Köln or draw | 1.46 | 64.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hamburger SV | 1.95 | 47.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Köln | 1.79 | 52.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 80.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 59.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 38.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.49 | 62.7% | +0.2 pts |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 team goals | 2.06 | 45.6% | +0.3 pts |
| 1. FC Köln over 1.5 team goals | 1.98 | 47.5% | -0.7 pts |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -0.9 pts |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.89 · 1-2 9.15 · 2-1 9.57 · 0-1 10.67 · 2-2 10.85
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 13:01 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 26 | Hamburger SV | 1-1 | 1. FC Köln |
| 02 Nov 25 | 1. FC Köln | 4-1 | Hamburger SV |