Fixture · Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 14:30 BST
Hamburger SV
v 1. FC Köln
The model's read
Hamburger SV
40%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
1. FC Köln
35%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Hamburger SV or draw | 65.0% |
| Double chance 1. FC Köln or draw | 60.4% |
| Double chance either team | 74.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.1% |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 team goals | 49.5% |
| 1. FC Köln over 1.5 team goals | 46.0% |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 21.1% |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 18.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.4% · 2-1 8.6% · 1-2 8.0% · 2-2 6.7% · 1-0 5.6%
Model readiness. Hamburger SV has played 3 league games this season, 1. FC Köln 3 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Hamburger SV
35%
market implied · price 2.69
Draw
26%
market implied · price 3.60
1. FC Köln
39%
market implied · price 2.43
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Hamburger SV or draw | 1.54 | 61.2% | 65.0% | +3.8 |
| Double chance 1. FC Köln or draw | 1.45 | 64.9% | 60.4% | -4.6 |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.8% | 74.6% | +0.8 |
| Draw no bet — Hamburger SV | 1.96 | 47.8% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Köln | 1.79 | 52.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 80.5% | 84.1% | +3.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59.4% | 62.4% | +3.0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.41 | 39.0% | 40.1% | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | 1.49 | 62.5% | 65.0% | +2.5 |
| Hamburger SV over 1.5 team goals | 2.07 | 45.2% | 49.5% | +4.3 |
| 1. FC Köln over 1.5 team goals | 1.95 | 48.1% | 46.0% | -2.1 |
| Hamburger SV clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | 21.1% | -0.6 |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | 18.9% | -4.4 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.96 · 1-2 9.04 · 2-1 9.51 · 0-1 10.48 · 2-2 11.29
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Hamburger SV over 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.07 implies a 45% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 51%. A 5-point disagreement.
- over 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.94 implies a 49% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 54%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Hamburger SV, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.01 implies a 48% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 53%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Hamburger SV, draw no bet — the market’s price of 1.96 implies a 48% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 53%. A 5-point disagreement.
- over 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.60 implies a 59% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 64%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Hamburger SV winning — the market’s price of 2.69 implies a 35% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 39%. A 4-point disagreement.
2 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Hamburger SV
- Hamburger SV have lost their last 3 league games.
- Hamburger SV have failed to score in their last 3 league games.
- Hamburger SV are winless in their last 4 league games (D1 L3).
- Hamburger SV have conceded in each of their last 17 league games.
1. FC Köln
- Both teams have scored in each of 1. FC Köln's last 13 league games.
- 1. FC Köln have conceded in each of their last 17 league games.
- 1. FC Köln have not won any of their last 6 away league games (D4 L2).
- Both teams scored in 6 of 1. FC Köln's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Daniel Heuer Fernandes has made 9 saves in 3 league games this season.
- T. Dallinga has scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
- M. Schwäbe has made 10 saves in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Hamburger SV
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | L | 0-5 | RB Leipzig (A) | — |
| 06 Sep | L | 0-5 | FSV Mainz 05 (H) | — |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-2 | Borussia Dortmund (A) | 0.9 - 1.5 |
| 16 May | D | 1-1 | Bayer Leverkusen (A) | 1.8 - 3.3 |
| 10 May | W | 3-2 | SC Freiburg (H) | 2.0 - 0.4 |
| 02 May | W | 2-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt (A) | 0.6 - 0.7 |
Recent form — 1. FC Köln
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Werder Bremen (H) | — |
| 04 Sep | L | 1-4 | VfB Stuttgart (A) | 2.9 - 3.5 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim (H) | 1.9 - 1.9 |
| 16 May | L | 1-5 | Bayern München (A) | 1.0 - 3.0 |
| 10 May | L | 1-3 | 1. FC Heidenheim (H) | 1.2 - 1.4 |
| 02 May | D | 2-2 | Union Berlin (A) | 1.8 - 1.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Hamburger SV
-0.62
xG diff/game · 0.91 for, 1.53 against
1. FC Köln
-0.27
xG diff/game · 2.40 for, 2.67 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0–12 | LLL |
| 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 1.333 | 5–7 | DLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | home | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 0.0 / 5.0 | 0 |
| 1. FC Köln | away | Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 1.0 / 4.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Hamburger SV 4 wins, 3 draws, 1. FC Köln 3 wins — 2.6 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 26 | Hamburger SV | 1-1 | 1. FC Köln |
| 02 Nov 25 | 1. FC Köln | 4-1 | Hamburger SV |