Fixture · 2. Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 12:00 BST
Karlsruher SC
v 1. FC Nürnberg
The model's read
Karlsruher SC
37%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
1. FC Nürnberg
36%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Karlsruher SC or draw | 63.6% |
| Double chance 1. FC Nürnberg or draw | 63.0% |
| Double chance either team | 73.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% |
| Karlsruher SC over 1.5 team goals | 44.4% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg over 1.5 team goals | 44.0% |
| Karlsruher SC clean sheet | 22.5% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet | 22.2% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.3% · 2-1 8.4% · 1-2 8.4% · 1-0 6.4% · 0-1 6.3%
Model readiness. Karlsruher SC has played 5 league games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Karlsruher SC
32%
market implied · price 2.86
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.77
1. FC Nürnberg
43%
market implied · price 2.14
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Karlsruher SC or draw | 1.65 | 56.7% | 63.6% | +6.9 |
| Double chance 1. FC Nürnberg or draw | 1.38 | 67.9% | 63.0% | -4.9 |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.4% | 73.5% | -1.9 |
| Draw no bet — Karlsruher SC | 2.17 | 43.0% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Nürnberg | 1.64 | 57.0% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 85.7% | 81.2% | -4.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 68.5% | 57.7% | -10.8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.91 | 49.1% | 35.2% | -13.9 |
| Both teams to score | 1.34 | 69.2% | 61.5% | -7.7 |
| Karlsruher SC over 1.5 team goals | 1.87 | 49.7% | 44.4% | -5.3 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg over 1.5 team goals | 1.61 | 57.8% | 44.0% | -13.9 |
| Karlsruher SC clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | 22.5% | +6.8 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | 22.2% | +1.4 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.21 · 1-2 9.21 · 2-2 10.25 · 2-1 10.73 · 0-1 13.85
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:05 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Karlsruher SC
- Karlsruher SC are winless in their last 4 league games (D2 L2).
- 6 of Karlsruher SC's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Karlsruher SC's last 6 home league games.
- Karlsruher SC have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
1. FC Nürnberg
- 1. FC Nürnberg are unbeaten in their last 7 league games (W6 D1).
- 5 of 1. FC Nürnberg's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in each of 1. FC Nürnberg's last 4 league games.
- Both teams scored in 6 of 1. FC Nürnberg's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Moritz Broschinski has scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
- M. Wanitzek has 1 goal and 2 assists in 3 league games this season.
- H. Bernat has made 12 saves in 3 league games this season.
- Mohamed Ali Zoma has scored 3 goals in 2 league games this season.
- Julian Justvan has scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
- Piet Scobel has scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Karlsruher SC
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | L | 0-3 | Energie Cottbus (H) | — |
| 04 Sep | D | 2-2 | Hannover 96 (A) | — |
| 29 Aug | L | 2-5 | VfL Wolfsburg (H) | 1.6 - 3.0 |
| 15 Aug | D | 0-0 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A) | 0.8 - 1.1 |
| 08 Aug | W | 2-1 | Arminia Bielefeld (H) | 1.4 - 1.2 |
| 20 Mar | W | 3-1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H) | 2.4 - 1.4 |
Recent form — 1. FC Nürnberg
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | W | 2-1 | Hannover 96 (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 2-2 | Holstein Kiel (A) | 1.8 - 0.7 |
| 29 Aug | W | 4-1 | Arminia Bielefeld (H) | 0.9 - 1.2 |
| 15 Aug | W | 4-2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A) | 1.2 - 2.8 |
| 09 Aug | W | 3-0 | Dynamo Dresden (H) | 2.1 - 1.2 |
| 21 Mar | W | 3-0 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern (H) | 2.9 - 0.5 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Karlsruher SC
-0.51
xG diff/game · 1.24 for, 1.75 against
1. FC Nürnberg
+0.07
xG diff/game · 1.53 for, 1.46 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruher SC | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 6–11 | LDLDW |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 15–6 | WDWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruher SC | home | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | away | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Karlsruher SC 7 wins, 1 draws, 1. FC Nürnberg 2 wins — 3.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb 26 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 5-1 | Karlsruher SC |
| 13 Sep 25 | Karlsruher SC | 2-1 | 1. FC Nürnberg |