Le Mans 2–1 Lorient
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.92–0.97.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.9–1, shots 11–9 with 7–2 on target. Le Mans's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 7 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Le Mans 3-1-4-2
- 5 H. Voyer (D)
- 10 J. Vercruysse (M)
- 11 A. Bourabaa (M)
- 13 H. Diallo (F)
- 14 L. Mafouta (F)
- 17 S. Yohou (D)
- 19 D. Sidibé (D)
- 26 R. Bamba (M)
- 29 L. Bretelle (M)
- 76 Y. Larouci (M)
- 98 N. Kocik (G)
Bench: D. Traoré, Raúl Torrente, A. Rabillard, A. Lauray, E. Hatfout, D. Guèye, L. Calodat, B. Brahimi, N. Boissé
Lorient 3-4-2-1
- 3 M. Talbi (D)
- 8 N. Cadiou (M)
- 17 J. Makengo (M)
- 18 I. Baldé (F)
- 20 D. Sylla (D)
- 32 N. Adjei (D)
- 33 G. Bernardeau (M)
- 38 Y. Mvogo (G)
- 43 K. Kouassi (M)
- 62 A. Avom (M)
- 77 P. Katseris (M)
Bench: S. Touré, N. Obaretin, T. Le Bris, S. Kuzmić, M. Kone, B. Kamara, I. Jensen, A. Georgen, S. Faye
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Le Mans or draw | 1.51 | 62.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Double chance Lorient or draw | 1.43 | 66.4% | +1.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.34 | 70.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Le Mans | 1.90 | 48.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lorient | 1.81 | 51.3% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 50.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.07 | 30.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 56.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Le Mans over 1.5 team goals | 2.48 | 38.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Lorient over 1.5 team goals | 2.33 | 40.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +1.8 pts |
| Lorient clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.08 · 0-1 8.84 · 1-2 9.16 · 1-0 9.22 · 0-0 9.60
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).