Fixture · Championship · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 15:00 BST
Lincoln
v Swansea
The model's read
Not enough matches played yet this season for a
model read on this fixture. It appears automatically once both sides pass the warm-up.
The market’s read
Lincoln
34%
market implied · price 2.77
Draw
28%
market implied · price 3.35
Swansea
38%
market implied · price 2.45
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lincoln or draw | 1.51 | 61.9% |
| Double chance Swansea or draw | 1.42 | 65.9% |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.2% |
| Draw no bet — Lincoln | 1.94 | 47.7% |
| Draw no bet — Swansea | 1.78 | 52.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 72.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.15 | 29.5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.0% |
| Lincoln over 1.5 team goals | 2.45 | 38.0% |
| Swansea over 1.5 team goals | 2.26 | 41.1% |
| Lincoln clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% |
| Swansea clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.30 · 0-1 8.41 · 1-0 8.96 · 1-2 9.42 · 0-0 9.52
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:02 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Lincoln, draw no bet — the market’s price of 1.99 implies a 47% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 52%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Swansea under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.45 implies a 38% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 43%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Lincoln +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.54 implies a 61% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 66%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Lincoln, draw no bet — the market’s price of 1.94 implies a 48% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 52%. A 5-point disagreement.
- Swansea under 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.58 implies a 59% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 63%. A 4-point disagreement.
- Lincoln or the draw — the market’s price of 1.51 implies a 62% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 66%. A 4-point disagreement.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Lincoln
- Lincoln are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W3 D2).
Players in form
- G. Wickens has made 26 saves in 7 league games this season.
- F. Draper has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- A. Idah has scored 3 goals in 7 league games this season.
- Z. Vipotnik has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- Eom Ji-Sung has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Lincoln
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep | W | 1-0 | Bristol City (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | W | 1-0 | Preston (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 1-1 | Southampton (H) | 2.3 - 0.8 |
| 01 Sep | D | 0-0 | Blackburn (H) | 1.5 - 0.2 |
| 29 Aug | W | 1-0 | Bolton (A) | 1.3 - 1.9 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-3 | Portsmouth (H) | 2.1 - 0.7 |
Recent form — Swansea
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | W | 3-1 | Burnley (H) | — |
| 08 Sep | L | 1-3 | Southampton (A) | 1.2 - 1.4 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Wrexham (H) | 0.7 - 0.7 |
| 01 Sep | W | 2-0 | Watford (H) | 2.7 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 3-0 | Derby (A) | 3.0 - 0.7 |
| 22 Aug | D | 0-0 | Sheffield Utd (H) | 0.3 - 0.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Lincoln
+0.38
xG diff/game · 1.55 for, 1.17 against
Swansea
+0.61
xG diff/game · 1.44 for, 0.82 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | Championship | 2026/27 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 1.571 | 6–6 | WWDDW |
| Swansea | Championship | 2026/27 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 11–5 | WLDWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-2-1 | 0.7 / 1.3 | 1 |
| Swansea | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-0-1 | 2.0 / 1.3 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
No meetings on record.