Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 19:45 BST
Lyon
v Rennes
The model's read
Lyon
46%
match result
Draw
25%
match result
Rennes
28%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Lyon or draw | 71.6% |
| Double chance Rennes or draw | 53.8% |
| Double chance either team | 74.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% |
| Lyon over 1.5 team goals | 52.5% |
| Rennes over 1.5 team goals | 38.9% |
| Lyon clean sheet | 26.0% |
| Rennes clean sheet | 17.2% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.7% · 2-1 9.3% · 1-2 7.1% · 2-0 6.9% · 1-0 6.8%
Model readiness. Lyon has played 5 league games this season, Rennes 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Lyon
45%
market implied · price 2.11
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.73
Rennes
30%
market implied · price 3.13
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lyon or draw | 1.35 | 69.8% | 71.6% | +1.8 |
| Double chance Rennes or draw | 1.71 | 55.0% | 53.8% | -1.1 |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.2% | 74.6% | -0.6 |
| Draw no bet — Lyon | 1.57 | 59.2% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Rennes | 2.28 | 40.8% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 81.4% | 82.7% | +1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 61.4% | 60.0% | -1.4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 41.1% | 37.6% | -3.5 |
| Both teams to score | 1.45 | 64.1% | 62.3% | -1.8 |
| Lyon over 1.5 team goals | 1.76 | 53.3% | 52.5% | -0.9 |
| Rennes over 1.5 team goals | 2.22 | 42.4% | 38.9% | -3.5 |
| Lyon clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | 26.0% | +1.0 |
| Rennes clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | 17.2% | +0.1 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.29 · 2-1 8.52 · 2-2 10.70 · 1-2 10.70 · 1-0 11.01
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:05 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Lyon: another match 3d before (2026-09-16).
Rotation risk — Rennes: another match 3d before (2026-09-16).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Lyon
- Lyon are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W2 D2).
- Lyon have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Rennes
- Rennes have won their last 3 league games.
- Rennes are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W3 D1).
- 6 of Rennes's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Rennes have averaged 2.7 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- D. Greif has made 15 saves in 5 league games this season.
- P. Šulc has 2 assists in 5 league games this season.
- E. Lepaul has scored 3 goals in 4 league games this season.
- A. Thomasson has 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 league games this season.
- B. Samba has made 10 saves in 3 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Lyon
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Paris FC (A) | — |
| 04 Sep | W | 3-1 | Auxerre (H) | 2.9 - 0.7 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Le Havre (H) | 1.6 - 0.7 |
| 26 Aug | L | 1-2 | Fenerbahçe (H) | — |
| 22 Aug | W | 2-0 | Toulouse (A) | 0.2 - 2.6 |
| 17 May | L | 0-4 | Lens (H) | 1.9 - 1.5 |
Recent form — Rennes
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | W | 1-0 | Marseille (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | W | 2-1 | Angers (A) | — |
| 30 Aug | W | 3-2 | Le Mans (H) | 2.7 - 3.0 |
| 23 Aug | D | 2-2 | Paris Saint Germain (H) | 0.7 - 1.6 |
| 17 May | L | 1-3 | Marseille (A) | 2.5 - 2.9 |
| 10 May | W | 2-1 | Paris FC (H) | 1.8 - 1.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Lyon
+0.21
xG diff/game · 1.54 for, 1.33 against
Rennes
-0.58
xG diff/game · 1.70 for, 2.29 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 6–2 | DWDW |
| Rennes | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 8–5 | WWWD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
| Rennes | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-0-0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Lyon 4 wins, 0 draws, Rennes 6 wins — 4.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Lyon | 4-2 | Rennes |
| 14 Sep 25 | Rennes | 3-1 | Lyon |