Lyon 4–0 Rennes
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–0; by chance quality the match ran 3.13–1.37.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Lyon to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 46% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Lyon created the better chances — the xG read 3.1–1.4 and the shot count agreed (15–13, 9–4 on target). Lyon's finishing ran hot — 4 from 3.1 xG, 9 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lyon 4-2-3-1
- 1 D. Greif (G)
- 2 M. Bidstrup (M)
- 7 E. Nuamah (M)
- 8 C. Tolisso (M)
- 10 P. Šulc (M)
- 13 Z. Athekame (D)
- 16 Abner (D)
- 17 L. Openda (F)
- 19 M. Niakhaté (D)
- 20 F. Bacher (D)
- 23 T. Morton (M)
Bench: T. Tessmann, K. Boudache, R. Descamps, R. Kluivert, Clinton Mata, K. Merah, Keito Nakamura, N. Nartey, M. Ouédraogo
Rennes 4-1-4-1
- 4 C. Cresswell (D)
- 12 Eliezer Mayenda (M)
- 21 V. Rongier (M)
- 22 B. Dia (F)
- 26 Q. Merlin (D)
- 28 A. Thomasson (M)
- 30 B. Samba (G)
- 45 M. Camara (M)
- 48 A. Ait Boudlal (D)
- 70 A. Nordin (M)
- 95 P. Frankowski (D)
Bench: L. Blas, H. Do Marcolino, N. Lemaître, E. Lepaul, M. Nagida, B. Reynolds, A. Rouault, S. Szymański, Mousa Tamari
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lyon or draw | 1.37 | 69.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Double chance Rennes or draw | 1.69 | 56.3% | +1.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 74.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lyon | 1.59 | 58.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rennes | 2.25 | 41.4% | +0.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 81.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 61.5% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.33 | 41.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 64.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Lyon over 1.5 team goals | 1.81 | 52.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Rennes over 1.5 team goals | 2.20 | 43.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Lyon clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Rennes clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.08 · 2-1 8.60 · 2-2 10.45 · 1-2 10.70 · 1-0 11.10
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Lyon | 4-2 | Rennes |
| 14 Sep 25 | Rennes | 3-1 | Lyon |