Fixture · Championship · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 12:30 BST
Millwall
v West Ham
The model's read
Millwall
41%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
West Ham
31%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Millwall or draw | 68.6% |
| Double chance West Ham or draw | 58.5% |
| Double chance either team | 72.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% |
| Millwall over 1.5 team goals | 45.5% |
| West Ham over 1.5 team goals | 37.8% |
| Millwall clean sheet | 26.9% |
| West Ham clean sheet | 21.5% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.8% · 2-1 9.0% · 1-0 7.7% · 1-2 7.7% · 0-0 6.9%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Millwall
23%
market implied · price 4.03
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.79
West Ham
52%
market implied · price 1.78
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Millwall or draw | 1.96 | 47.9% | 68.6% | +20.7 |
| Double chance West Ham or draw | 1.23 | 76.2% | 58.5% | -17.7 |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.9% | 72.8% | -3.0 |
| Draw no bet — Millwall | 2.93 | 31.8% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — West Ham | 1.36 | 68.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 80.1% | 78.9% | -1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.58 | 59.6% | 54.3% | -5.4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.37 | 39.4% | 31.9% | -7.4 |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 60.4% | 58.6% | -1.9 |
| Millwall over 1.5 team goals | 2.61 | 35.7% | 45.5% | +9.7 |
| West Ham over 1.5 team goals | 1.63 | 57.2% | 37.8% | -19.4 |
| Millwall clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | 26.9% | +11.2 |
| West Ham clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | 21.5% | -7.6 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.57 · 1-2 8.09 · 0-1 9.47 · 0-2 10.04 · 2-2 11.93
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:01 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Millwall, draw no bet — the market’s price of 3.03 implies a 31% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 58%. A 27-point disagreement.
- Millwall, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.93 implies a 32% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 58%. A 26-point disagreement.
- West Ham under 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.63 implies a 57% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 81%. A 25-point disagreement.
- Millwall +1 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.54 implies a 61% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 83%. A 23-point disagreement.
- Millwall +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 2.01 implies a 47% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 69%. A 22-point disagreement.
- West Ham under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 4.55 implies a 20% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 42%. A 22-point disagreement.
16 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Millwall
- Both teams have not scored in any of Millwall's last 6 home league games.
- Millwall have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home league games.
West Ham
- West Ham have won their last 4 league games.
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W4 D1).
Players in form
- L. Dykes has scored 4 goals in 7 league games this season.
- T. Arconte has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- Josh Coburn has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- J. Bowen has 4 goals and 3 assists in 7 league games this season.
- K. Mavropanos has scored 3 goals in 6 league games this season.
- M. Kanté has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Millwall
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep | D | 2-2 | Middlesbrough (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-3 | Blackburn (A) | — |
| 05 Sep | W | 4-0 | Bolton (H) | 2.6 - 0.9 |
| 02 Sep | L | 0-3 | Wrexham (H) | 0.2 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-5 | Southampton (A) | 1.4 - 3.6 |
| 22 Aug | W | 3-0 | Norwich (H) | 2.0 - 0.9 |
Recent form — West Ham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep | W | 6-0 | Wrexham (H) | — |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-2 | Bolton (A) | 2.2 - 1.6 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-0 | Derby (H) | 3.8 - 0.1 |
| 01 Sep | W | 4-2 | Wolves (H) | 2.0 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Watford (A) | 0.9 - 1.6 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-1 | Charlton (H) | 0.2 - 0.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Millwall
+0.47
xG diff/game · 1.85 for, 1.37 against
West Ham
+0.63
xG diff/game · 1.74 for, 1.10 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | Championship | 2026/27 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 13–13 | DLWLL |
| West Ham | Championship | 2026/27 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 20–9 | WWWWD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-0-1 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 2 |
| West Ham | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-2-0 | 2.0 / 1.7 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 2 meetings: Millwall 0 wins, 1 draws, West Ham 1 wins — 1.5 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.