Fixture · La Liga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 BST
Osasuna
v Rayo Vallecano
The model's read
Osasuna
49%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Rayo Vallecano
24%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Osasuna or draw | 75.5% |
| Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw | 50.7% |
| Double chance either team | 73.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.6% |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% |
| Osasuna over 1.5 team goals | 50.6% |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals | 31.6% |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 32.0% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 18.3% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.5% · 2-1 9.6% · 1-0 8.8% · 2-0 8.4% · 0-0 7.0%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Osasuna
42%
market implied · price 2.25
Draw
29%
market implied · price 3.26
Rayo Vallecano
29%
market implied · price 3.21
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Osasuna or draw | 1.34 | 70.4% | 75.5% | +5.1 |
| Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw | 1.61 | 58.4% | 50.7% | -7.7 |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.2% | 73.7% | +2.6 |
| Draw no bet — Osasuna | 1.60 | 58.3% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Rayo Vallecano | 2.23 | 41.7% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.34 | 70.1% | 78.6% | +8.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.09 | 45.4% | 53.9% | +8.5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.57 | 26.1% | 31.6% | +5.5 |
| Both teams to score | 1.82 | 51.2% | 56.7% | +5.5 |
| Osasuna over 1.5 team goals | 2.27 | 41.3% | 50.6% | +9.3 |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals | 2.95 | 31.7% | 31.6% | -0.1 |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | 32.0% | -1.8 |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | 18.3% | -6.7 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.89 · 1-0 6.91 · 0-0 8.46 · 0-1 8.55 · 2-1 8.71
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:03 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- over 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.56 implies a 60% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 72%. A 12-point disagreement.
- Osasuna over 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.27 implies a 41% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 51%. A 9-point disagreement.
- over 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.93 implies a 32% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 41%. A 9-point disagreement.
- over 2.5 goals — the market’s price of 2.09 implies a 45% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 54%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Osasuna over 2.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.84 implies a 24% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 33%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Osasuna -1 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 3.56 implies a 26% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 35%. An 8-point disagreement.
9 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Osasuna: another match 3d before (2026-09-16).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Osasuna
- Osasuna have lost their last 3 league games.
Rayo Vallecano
- Both teams have scored in each of Rayo Vallecano's last 7 league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Rayo Vallecano's last 6 away league games.
- Rayo Vallecano have conceded in each of their last 7 league games.
Players in form
- A. Budimir has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Sergio Camello has scored 6 goals in 6 league games this season.
- Álvaro García has scored 2 goals in 6 league games this season.
- Unai López has 0 goals and 3 assists in 6 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Osasuna
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep | L | 0-4 | Atletico Madrid (A) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 0-2 | Espanyol (H) | 1.1 - 1.4 |
| 06 Sep | L | 2-5 | Alaves (A) | 1.6 - 1.2 |
| 31 Aug | W | 1-0 | Getafe (H) | 1.7 - 0.7 |
| 27 Aug | W | 2-1 | Celta Vigo (A) | 2.7 - 0.1 |
| 24 Aug | D | 0-0 | Levante (H) | 0.7 - 1.3 |
Recent form — Rayo Vallecano
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep | W | 2-1 | Espanyol (H) | — |
| 12 Sep | L | 1-4 | Real Madrid (A) | 1.2 - 2.6 |
| 05 Sep | W | 3-2 | Racing Santander (H) | 1.6 - 0.5 |
| 31 Aug | L | 2-5 | Barcelona (A) | 1.1 - 2.8 |
| 20 Aug | D | 1-1 | Alaves (H) | 0.4 - 1.8 |
| 15 Aug | L | 1-2 | Sevilla (A) | 2.0 - 2.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Osasuna
+0.60
xG diff/game · 1.55 for, 0.94 against
Rayo Vallecano
-0.75
xG diff/game · 1.26 for, 2.01 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | La Liga | 2026/27 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 5–8 | LLWWD |
| Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 2026/27 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 1.167 | 10–15 | WLWLD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 0.3 / 0.7 | 2 |
| Rayo Vallecano | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 0-0-3 | 1.3 / 3.7 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Osasuna 6 wins, 1 draws, Rayo Vallecano 3 wins — 2.6 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 26 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-3 | Osasuna |
| 14 Sep 25 | Osasuna | 2-0 | Rayo Vallecano |