Osasuna 1–1 Rayo Vallecano
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.53–1.01.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Osasuna to win (52%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 25% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Rayo Vallecano created the better chances — the xG read 0.5–1 and the shot count agreed (9–19, 3–2 on target). Rayo Vallecano held 63% of the ball. A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Rayo Vallecano shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Osasuna or draw | 1.41 | 66.9% | -3.5 pts |
| Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw | 1.51 | 62.3% | +3.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Osasuna | 1.76 | 53.1% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rayo Vallecano | 1.99 | 46.9% | +5.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 71.4% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 47.3% | +1.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.44 | 27.3% | +1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.2% | +2.0 pts |
| Osasuna over 1.5 team goals | 2.43 | 38.6% | -2.7 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals | 2.56 | 36.6% | +4.9 pts |
| Osasuna clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -4.7 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.82 · 1-0 7.74 · 0-1 8.39 · 2-1 9.27 · 0-0 9.28
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 11:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 26 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-3 | Osasuna |
| 14 Sep 25 | Osasuna | 2-0 | Rayo Vallecano |