Fixture · Serie B · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 14:00 BST
Palermo
v Padova
The model's read
Palermo
60%
match result
Draw
24%
match result
Padova
17%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Palermo or draw | 83.5% |
| Double chance Padova or draw | 40.4% |
| Double chance either team | 76.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% |
| Palermo over 1.5 team goals | 57.0% |
| Padova over 1.5 team goals | 23.4% |
| Palermo clean sheet | 39.9% |
| Padova clean sheet | 14.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.4% · 2-0 10.8% · 1-0 10.2% · 2-1 9.9% · 0-0 6.9%
Model readiness. Palermo has played 4 league games this season, Padova 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Palermo
62%
market implied · price 1.50
Draw
22%
market implied · price 4.20
Padova
16%
market implied · price 5.85
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Palermo
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W4 D1).
- Palermo have won 6 of their last 6 home league games.
- Palermo have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home league games.
- Palermo have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Recent form — Palermo
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | D | 1-1 | Avellino (A) | — |
| 07 Sep | W | 3-1 | Sampdoria (H) | — |
| 30 Aug | W | 3-2 | Arezzo (A) | 1.6 - 1.5 |
| 23 Aug | W | 1-0 | Juve Stabia (H) | 1.1 - 0.8 |
| 20 May | W | 2-0 | Catanzaro (H) | 2.3 - 0.6 |
| 17 May | L | 0-3 | Catanzaro (A) | 0.5 - 1.5 |
Recent form — Padova
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | W | 1-0 | Ascoli (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | L | 1-3 | Cremonese (A) | — |
| 29 Aug | D | 1-1 | Hellas Verona (H) | 0.9 - 1.7 |
| 23 Aug | W | 1-0 | Pisa (A) | 1.0 - 1.6 |
| 08 May | W | 4-3 | Cesena (A) | 1.8 - 2.3 |
| 01 May | W | 1-0 | Pescara (H) | 0.6 - 1.2 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Palermo
+0.21
xG diff/game · 1.35 for, 1.15 against
Padova
-0.67
xG diff/game · 0.98 for, 1.65 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | Serie B | 2026/27 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 8–4 | DWWW |
| Padova | Serie B | 2026/27 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 4–4 | WLDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | home | Serie B | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 2.0 / 0.5 | 1 |
| Padova | away | Serie B | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 1.0 / 1.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 6 meetings: Palermo 5 wins, 1 draws, Padova 0 wins — 1.67 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Padova | 0-1 | Palermo |
| 27 Dec 25 | Palermo | 1-0 | Padova |