Fixture · Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 16:15 BST
Paris FC
v Strasbourg
The model's read
Paris FC
41%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Strasbourg
32%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Paris FC or draw | 67.6% |
| Double chance Strasbourg or draw | 58.6% |
| Double chance either team | 73.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.3% |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% |
| Paris FC over 1.5 team goals | 48.3% |
| Strasbourg over 1.5 team goals | 41.5% |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 24.2% |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 19.7% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.1% · 2-1 8.9% · 1-2 7.8% · 1-0 6.6% · 2-2 6.3%
Model readiness. Paris FC has played 4 league games this season, Strasbourg 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Paris FC
47%
market implied · price 2.00
Draw
26%
market implied · price 3.62
Strasbourg
27%
market implied · price 3.52
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Paris FC or draw | 1.29 | 73.1% | 67.6% | -5.6 |
| Double chance Strasbourg or draw | 1.79 | 52.7% | 58.6% | +5.9 |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.2% | 73.8% | -0.3 |
| Draw no bet — Paris FC | 1.46 | 63.4% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Strasbourg | 2.52 | 36.6% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.7% | 81.8% | +3.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 57.4% | 58.7% | +1.3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.55 | 36.9% | 36.3% | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | 1.56 | 59.6% | 62.0% | +2.3 |
| Paris FC over 1.5 team goals | 1.81 | 52.0% | 48.3% | -3.6 |
| Strasbourg over 1.5 team goals | 2.55 | 36.7% | 41.5% | +4.8 |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | 24.2% | -4.9 |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | 19.7% | +0.7 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.86 · 2-1 8.32 · 1-0 9.10 · 2-0 10.95 · 1-2 11.20
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:05 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Strasbourg over 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.71 implies a 56% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 60%. A 5-point disagreement.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Paris FC
- Paris FC are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W3 D2).
- Paris FC have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Strasbourg
- Strasbourg are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
- Strasbourg have conceded in each of their last 12 league games.
- 5 of Strasbourg's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Strasbourg's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- L. Sinayoko has scored 4 goals in 4 league games this season.
- K. Trapp has made 9 saves in 4 league games this season.
- F. Jörgensen has made 16 saves in 4 league games this season.
- S. Amo-Ameyaw has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Gessime Yassine has scored 2 goals in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Paris FC
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Lyon (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | W | 3-2 | Marseille (A) | — |
| 30 Aug | W | 3-0 | Nice (H) | 2.7 - 0.6 |
| 22 Aug | D | 0-0 | Estac Troyes (A) | 0.8 - 0.4 |
| 17 May | W | 2-1 | Paris Saint Germain (H) | 2.2 - 0.6 |
| 10 May | L | 1-2 | Rennes (A) | 1.2 - 1.8 |
Recent form — Strasbourg
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | Monaco (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | W | 6-2 | Estac Troyes (A) | 3.0 - 2.9 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Lens (H) | 1.7 - 2.9 |
| 21 Aug | L | 0-4 | Marseille (A) | 0.2 - 1.8 |
| 17 May | W | 5-4 | Monaco (H) | 1.5 - 1.1 |
| 13 May | W | 2-1 | Stade Brestois 29 (A) | 2.0 - 3.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Paris FC
+1.29
xG diff/game · 1.77 for, 0.47 against
Strasbourg
-0.94
xG diff/game · 1.60 for, 2.54 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 6–2 | DWWD |
| Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1.75 | 9–8 | DWWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | home | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-1-0 | 1.5 / 0.0 | 2 |
| Strasbourg | away | Ligue 1 | 2026/27 | 1-0-1 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 6 meetings: Paris FC 2 wins, 2 draws, Strasbourg 2 wins — 2.33 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Strasbourg | 0-0 | Paris FC |
| 21 Sep 25 | Paris FC | 2-3 | Strasbourg |