QPR
v Preston
The preview
QPR head into this one winless in their last three league games (D2 L1), though their season total sits at 12 points from seven, with a home record this term of one win and one draw from three. Preston, on three points from seven with a run of LLWLL, have conceded in each of their last 22 league outings and remain without a win or draw in three away games this season. I. Chair has scored twice in five league appearances, while D. Iversen has made 20 saves in seven. The model rates QPR's win at 43%, the draw at 28% and Preston's win at 30%, with over 2.5 goals put at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%.
Machine-written from our own data — recorded results, the table and the model’s probabilities — and checked line by line: every number must come from that data, and it describes what has happened, not what will. Not a tip · written 16 Sep 09:35 BST.
The model's read
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance QPR or draw | 69.7% |
| Double chance Preston or draw | 56.9% |
| Double chance either team | 73.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% |
| QPR over 1.5 team goals | 48.1% |
| Preston over 1.5 team goals | 38.3% |
| QPR clean sheet | 26.5% |
| Preston clean sheet | 19.8% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.4% · 2-1 9.1% · 1-2 7.5% · 1-0 7.4% · 2-0 6.9%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance QPR or draw | 1.17 | 79.7% | 69.7% | -10.0 |
| Double chance Preston or draw | 2.10 | 44.4% | 56.9% | +12.4 |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 75.9% | 73.5% | -2.4 |
| Draw no bet — QPR | 1.29 | 72.6% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Preston | 3.41 | 27.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 75.5% | 80.4% | +4.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 53.1% | 56.4% | +3.3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.89 | 32.3% | 34.0% | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 53.6% | 60.0% | +6.4 |
| QPR over 1.5 team goals | 1.72 | 54.3% | 48.1% | -6.2 |
| Preston over 1.5 team goals | 3.38 | 27.5% | 38.3% | +10.8 |
| QPR clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | 26.5% | -11.0 |
| Preston clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | 19.8% | +2.7 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 7.06 · 1-1 7.09 · 2-1 7.71 · 2-0 8.18 · 0-0 11.57
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:02 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Preston over 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 2.19 implies a 42% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 59%. A 17-point disagreement.
- Preston, draw no bet — the market’s price of 3.42 implies a 27% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 41%. A 14-point disagreement.
- Preston, draw no bet — the market’s price of 3.41 implies a 27% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 41%. A 14-point disagreement.
- Preston +1 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.63 implies a 58% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 71%. A 13-point disagreement.
- Preston +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 2.14 implies a 44% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 57%. A 12-point disagreement.
- Preston or the draw — the market’s price of 2.10 implies a 44% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 57%. A 12-point disagreement.
10 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Availability and rotation
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
QPR
- QPR are winless in their last 3 league games (D2 L1).
Preston
- Preston have conceded in each of their last 22 league games.
- 5 of Preston's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Preston's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- P. Charles has made 17 saves in 7 league games this season.
- I. Chair has scored 2 goals in 5 league games this season.
- R. Burrell has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- D. Iversen has made 20 saves in 7 league games this season.
- C. Lang has scored 3 goals in 7 league games this season.
- D. Burgzorg has 2 assists in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — QPR
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 1-1 | West Brom (A) | — |
| 09 Sep | D | 0-0 | Charlton (A) | 1.1 - 0.5 |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-1 | Middlesbrough (H) | 1.0 - 2.5 |
| 02 Sep | W | 2-1 | Cardiff (H) | 2.1 - 0.6 |
| 29 Aug | W | 2-1 | Blackburn (A) | 1.3 - 0.9 |
| 22 Aug | D | 0-0 | Bolton (H) | 0.5 - 0.0 |
Recent form — Preston
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 0-1 | Lincoln (H) | — |
| 08 Sep | L | 1-2 | Watford (A) | 2.4 - 1.3 |
| 05 Sep | W | 2-1 | Blackburn (H) | 2.2 - 1.1 |
| 01 Sep | L | 1-3 | Bristol City (H) | 1.9 - 1.8 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-1 | Charlton (A) | 1.3 - 0.7 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-3 | Wolves (H) | 0.1 - 0.6 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | Championship | 2026/27 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 1.714 | 8–5 | DDLWW |
| Preston | Championship | 2026/27 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 0.429 | 6–13 | LLWLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-1-1 | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1 |
| Preston | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-0-3 | 0.7 / 1.7 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: QPR 6 wins, 2 draws, Preston 2 wins — 2.4 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr 26 | Preston | 1-1 | QPR |
| 09 Aug 25 | QPR | 1-1 | Preston |