QPR 2–2 Preston
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 2.54–1.50.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured QPR to win (42%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
QPR created the better chances — the xG read 2.5–1.5 and the shot count agreed (30–13, 6–3 on target). QPR got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 11). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created QPR shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
QPR 4-4-2
- 1 P. Charles (G)
- 3 J. Dunne (D)
- 5 R. Edwards (D)
- 16 R. Burrell (F)
- 17 K. Poku (M)
- 18 G. Kamara (M)
- 19 D. Cirkin (D)
- 20 H. Vale (M)
- 24 N. Madsen (M)
- 27 A. Mbengue (D)
- 33 L. Scarlett
Bench: I. Alemayehu, J. Clarke-Salter, A. Lloyd, L. Morrison, K. Adamson, K. Saito, P. Smyth, J. Varane, C. Ward
Preston 5-3-2
- 1 D. Iversen (G)
- 3 A. Vukčević (D)
- 4 H. Clarke (D)
- 7 A. Devine (M)
- 10 C. Lang (F)
- 14 J. Storey (D)
- 15 J. Thompson (M)
- 16 A. Hughes (D)
- 17 S. Mills (M)
- 27 L. Leroy (M)
- 38 J. Kenny (F)
Bench: D. Burgzorg, J. Erabi, L. Gibbs, L. Lindsay, A. Moran, L. Nicholls, O. Offiah, T. Small, Pol Valentín
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance QPR or draw | 1.19 | 78.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Double chance Preston or draw | 2.03 | 45.9% | +1.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — QPR | 1.29 | 72.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Preston | 3.35 | 27.8% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 52.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.93 | 31.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 53.6% | -0.1 pts |
| QPR over 1.5 team goals | 1.76 | 52.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Preston over 1.5 team goals | 3.39 | 27.5% | +0.0 pts |
| QPR clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Preston clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.92 · 1-0 7.16 · 2-1 7.72 · 2-0 8.12 · 0-0 11.60
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 13:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr 26 | Preston | 1-1 | QPR |
| 09 Aug 25 | QPR | 1-1 | Preston |