Fixture · Serie B · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 16:15 BST
Sampdoria
v Catanzaro
The model's read
Sampdoria
43%
match result
Draw
30%
match result
Catanzaro
27%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Sampdoria or draw | 72.8% |
| Double chance Catanzaro or draw | 57.4% |
| Double chance either team | 69.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% |
| Sampdoria over 1.5 team goals | 38.4% |
| Catanzaro over 1.5 team goals | 27.0% |
| Sampdoria clean sheet | 36.2% |
| Catanzaro clean sheet | 26.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.2% · 1-0 11.4% · 0-0 10.9% · 2-1 8.6% · 2-0 8.5%
Model readiness. Sampdoria has played 4 league games this season, Catanzaro 4 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Sampdoria
42%
market implied · price 2.20
Draw
29%
market implied · price 3.20
Catanzaro
29%
market implied · price 3.26
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:04 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Sampdoria
- Sampdoria have lost their last 3 league games.
- Sampdoria are winless in their last 5 league games (D1 L4).
Catanzaro
- Catanzaro have lost 5 of their last 6 away league games.
Recent form — Sampdoria
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | L | 0-2 | Mantova (A) | — |
| 07 Sep | L | 1-3 | Palermo (A) | — |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-2 | Juve Stabia (H) | 1.4 - 0.9 |
| 23 Aug | D | 1-1 | Cesena (A) | 1.1 - 1.0 |
| 08 May | L | 0-1 | Reggiana (A) | 0.9 - 1.0 |
| 01 May | W | 1-0 | Sudtirol (H) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
Recent form — Catanzaro
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | W | 1-0 | Carrarese (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | L | 0-2 | Sudtirol (A) | 0.6 - 0.4 |
| 30 Aug | L | 1-2 | Pisa (A) | 1.1 - 1.9 |
| 21 Aug | L | 2-3 | Vicenza Virtus (A) | 1.7 - 1.8 |
| 29 May | W | 2-0 | Monza (A) | 1.2 - 0.6 |
| 24 May | L | 0-2 | Monza (H) | 0.8 - 0.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Sampdoria
+0.27
xG diff/game · 1.23 for, 0.97 against
Catanzaro
-0.21
xG diff/game · 1.15 for, 1.36 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | Serie B | 2026/27 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 3–8 | LLLD |
| Catanzaro | Serie B | 2026/27 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0.75 | 4–7 | WLLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | home | Serie B | 2026/27 | 0-0-1 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0 |
| Catanzaro | away | Serie B | 2026/27 | 0-0-3 | 1.0 / 2.3 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 6 meetings: Sampdoria 1 wins, 4 draws, Catanzaro 1 wins — 2.83 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 26 | Catanzaro | 0-0 | Sampdoria |
| 01 Oct 25 | Sampdoria | 0-0 | Catanzaro |