Sampdoria 2–1 Catanzaro
What the chances were worth
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Sampdoria to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 42% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Sampdoria carried the greater threat — shots 17–10, 6–1 on target, 13–7 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Sampdoria 4-3-3
- 1 P. Vindahl (G)
- 3 S. Gartenmann (D)
- 6 L. Henderson (M)
- 7 M. Cicconi (D)
- 9 T. Lauritsen (F)
- 10 L. Insigne (F)
- 15 F. Delli Carri (D)
- 16 Y. Verschaeren (M)
- 28 O. Abildgaard (F)
- 29 A. Di Pardo (D)
- 45 A. Makoumbou (M)
Bench: Andrey Krastev, K. Mbabu, L. Ravanelli, D. Sinani, G. Tutino, S. Massolo, Yann Karamoh, A. Ferrari, S. Esposito, T. Begić
Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
- 3 M. Imperiale (D)
- 4 Matias Antonini (D)
- 9 P. Iemmello (M)
- 10 J. Petriccione (M)
- 19 N. Koffi (F)
- 20 S. Pafundi (M)
- 22 M. Pigliacelli (G)
- 24 M. Ruggero (D)
- 30 G. Alesi (M)
- 93 M. Dorval (M)
- 98 N. Mosti (M)
Bench: N. Buso, A. Candela, F. Cassa, F. Di Francesco, F. Reita, B. Verrengia, F. Tchaouna, E. Pecorino, C. Marietta, S. Giovane, A. Garnica, R. Frosinini
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sampdoria or draw | 1.28 | 73.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Double chance Catanzaro or draw | 1.74 | 53.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sampdoria | 1.45 | 63.8% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Catanzaro | 2.56 | 36.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.4% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.89 | 49.9% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.14 | 29.6% | +1.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.71 | 54.0% | +0.9 pts |
| Sampdoria over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.3% | +1.9 pts |
| Catanzaro over 1.5 team goals | 3.03 | 30.8% | +0.3 pts |
| Sampdoria clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Catanzaro clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.24 · 1-0 7.34 · 2-1 8.28 · 0-0 9.38 · 2-0 9.70
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 15:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 26 | Catanzaro | 0-0 | Sampdoria |
| 01 Oct 25 | Sampdoria | 0-0 | Catanzaro |