Fixture · La Liga · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 20:00 BST
Sevilla
v Barcelona
The model's read
Sevilla
24%
match result
Draw
26%
match result
Barcelona
50%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Sevilla or draw | 50.2% |
| Double chance Barcelona or draw | 76.2% |
| Double chance either team | 73.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% |
| Sevilla over 1.5 team goals | 30.3% |
| Barcelona over 1.5 team goals | 50.2% |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 18.5% |
| Barcelona clean sheet | 33.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.6% · 1-2 9.6% · 0-1 9.2% · 0-2 8.7% · 0-0 7.3%
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Sevilla
8%
market implied · price 11.34
Draw
15%
market implied · price 6.36
Barcelona
77%
market implied · price 1.22
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sevilla or draw | 4.11 | 23.2% | 50.2% | +27.0 |
| Double chance Barcelona or draw | 1.04 | 91.1% | 76.2% | -14.9 |
| Double chance either team | 1.11 | 85.7% | 73.6% | -12.1 |
| Draw no bet — Sevilla | 8.48 | 11.1% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Barcelona | 1.06 | 88.9% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 | 85.9% | 77.9% | -8.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.34 | 69.7% | 52.8% | -16.9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.91 | 49.9% | 30.6% | -19.4 |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53.3% | 55.6% | +2.3 |
| Sevilla over 1.5 team goals | 4.28 | 21.8% | 30.3% | +8.5 |
| Barcelona over 1.5 team goals | 1.23 | 76.0% | 50.2% | -25.8 |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 13.00 | 7.4% | 18.5% | +11.1 |
| Barcelona clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | 33.1% | -11.2 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-2 7.69 · 0-3 8.21 · 1-2 8.87 · 1-3 9.48 · 0-1 9.99
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:03 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Rotation risk — Barcelona: another match 3d before (2026-09-16).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Sevilla
- Sevilla are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
Barcelona
- Barcelona have won their last 5 league games.
- 5 of Barcelona's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Barcelona have averaged 2.8 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- O. Vlachodimos has made 12 saves in 5 league games this season.
- Raphinha has 6 goals and 3 assists in 5 league games this season.
- Lamine Yamal has scored 6 goals in 5 league games this season.
- Fermín has scored 4 goals in 5 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Sevilla
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep | W | 1-0 | Deportivo La Coruna (A) | — |
| 11 Sep | W | 1-0 | Valencia (H) | 0.9 - 0.1 |
| 06 Sep | D | 1-1 | Espanyol (A) | 0.5 - 1.2 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-3 | Atletico Madrid (H) | 1.0 - 0.9 |
| 22 Aug | W | 3-1 | Athletic Club (A) | 0.0 - 0.0 |
| 15 Aug | W | 2-1 | Rayo Vallecano (H) | 2.3 - 2.0 |
Recent form — Barcelona
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | W | 4-2 | Levante (A) | 2.6 - 2.4 |
| 09 Sep | W | 5-1 | Feyenoord (H) | — |
| 06 Sep | W | 5-0 | Valencia (A) | 4.1 - 0.7 |
| 31 Aug | W | 5-2 | Rayo Vallecano (H) | 2.8 - 1.1 |
| 27 Aug | W | 2-0 | Athletic Club (H) | 3.9 - 0.2 |
| 23 Aug | W | 5-0 | Elche (A) | 4.1 - 0.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Sevilla
+0.09
xG diff/game · 0.94 for, 0.86 against
Barcelona
+2.48
xG diff/game · 3.50 for, 1.02 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | La Liga | 2026/27 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 8–6 | WDLWW |
| Barcelona | La Liga | 2026/27 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 21–4 | WWWWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | home | La Liga | 2026/27 | 2-0-1 | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1 |
| Barcelona | away | La Liga | 2026/27 | 2-0-0 | 5.0 / 0.0 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Sevilla 1 wins, 1 draws, Barcelona 8 wins — 3.6 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Barcelona | 5-2 | Sevilla |
| 05 Oct 25 | Sevilla | 4-1 | Barcelona |