Stoke City 2–1 Sheffield Utd
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.65–0.36.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Stoke City to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 43% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.7–0.4, shots 12–8 with 5–3 on target. Stoke City got into the box far more often (6 shots inside it to 3) and Stoke City held 62% of the ball. Stoke City's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.7 xG, 5 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Stoke City 3-4-3
- 1 V. Johansson (G)
- 2 B. Johnson (M)
- 5 L. Graham (D)
- 7 J. McGlynn (F)
- 8 E. Galbraith (M)
- 11 L. Cissé (F)
- 13 J. Devenny (F)
- 16 B. Wilmot (D)
- 17 E. Bocat (M)
- 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré (M)
- 40 M. Talovierov (D)
Bench: J. Griffiths, B. Gibson, J. Tchamadeu, L. Bombino, T. Rigo, M. Manhoef, B. Pearson, G. Hirst, S. Gallagher
Sheffield Utd 4-4-2
- 1 M. Cooper (G)
- 4 O. Arblaster (M)
- 5 J. Tanganga (D)
- 8 H. Choudhury (D)
- 15 L. Kitching (D)
- 22 B. Brereton (F)
- 27 K. Phillips (M)
- 30 R. Norrington-Davies (D)
- 33 J. Baptiste (M)
- 42 Sydie Peck (M)
- 45 P. Bamford (F)
Bench: R. Donovan, J. Ayew, T. Cannon, J. Rothwell, T. Chong, M. McGuinness, M. Doherty, J. Shackleton, A. Davies
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 1.34 | 70.0% | +5.2 pts |
| Double chance Sheffield Utd or draw | 1.60 | 58.5% | -4.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 1.63 | 57.3% | +6.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sheffield Utd | 2.18 | 42.7% | -6.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 72.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 49.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.18 | 29.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.69 | 54.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 2.19 | 42.6% | +3.0 pts |
| Sheffield Utd over 1.5 team goals | 2.71 | 34.6% | -4.0 pts |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +1.4 pts |
| Sheffield Utd clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.04 · 1-0 7.86 · 2-1 8.74 · 0-1 9.60 · 0-0 9.95
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 25 | Stoke City | 1-2 | Sheffield Utd |
| 06 Dec 25 | Sheffield Utd | 4-0 | Stoke City |