Stoke City
v Sheffield Utd
The preview
Stoke City host Sheffield Utd in the Championship on Saturday, with the home side unbeaten in their last four league games (W3 D1). Stoke sit on 10 points from seven matches with a form line of WDWWL, while Sheffield Utd have 9 points from seven, reading LWLWD. At home this season Stoke have won 2 of 3, and Sheffield Utd have taken 1 win and 2 draws from 3 away. Among the players named this season, E. Galbraith has scored 3 goals in 7 league games, while M. Cooper has made 24 saves in 7. The model rates Stoke's win at 44%, the draw at 28%, and Sheffield Utd's win at 28%, with both teams to score at 54%.
Machine-written from our own data — recorded results, the table and the model’s probabilities — and checked line by line: every number must come from that data, and it describes what has happened, not what will. Not a tip · written 16 Sep 09:35 BST.
The model's read
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 66.3% |
| Double chance Sheffield Utd or draw | 61.3% |
| Double chance either team | 72.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 42.7% |
| Sheffield Utd over 1.5 team goals | 38.9% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 26.1% |
| Sheffield Utd clean sheet | 23.4% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.1% · 2-1 8.7% · 1-2 8.0% · 1-0 7.7% · 0-0 7.3%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 1.44 | 64.8% | 66.3% | +1.5 |
| Double chance Sheffield Utd or draw | 1.48 | 63.2% | 61.3% | -1.9 |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.0% | 72.4% | +0.4 |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 1.84 | 50.8% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Sheffield Utd | 1.90 | 49.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.1% | 78.1% | +4.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.89 | 50.1% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.17 | 29.4% | 30.8% | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.1% | 57.9% | +2.7 |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 2.35 | 39.6% | 42.7% | +3.0 |
| Sheffield Utd over 1.5 team goals | 2.42 | 38.5% | 38.9% | +0.4 |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | 26.1% | -1.6 |
| Sheffield Utd clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | 23.4% | -3.4 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.24 · 1-0 8.75 · 0-1 8.87 · 2-1 9.39 · 1-2 9.43
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:02 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Stoke City over 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.55 implies a 60% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 65%. A 5-point disagreement.
Availability and rotation
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Stoke City
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W3 D1).
Players in form
- V. Johansson has made 22 saves in 7 league games this season.
- E. Galbraith has scored 3 goals in 7 league games this season.
- E. Bocat has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- M. Cooper has made 24 saves in 7 league games this season.
- P. Bamford has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
- T. Cannon has scored 2 goals in 7 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Stoke City
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | W | 2-1 | Watford (A) | — |
| 08 Sep | D | 1-1 | Cardiff (A) | 0.8 - 2.9 |
| 05 Sep | W | 4-0 | Charlton (H) | 2.1 - 0.6 |
| 01 Sep | W | 1-0 | Norwich (H) | 0.2 - 1.4 |
| 29 Aug | L | 1-4 | Wolves (A) | 0.8 - 2.7 |
| 22 Aug | L | 1-3 | Southampton (A) | 0.5 - 0.6 |
Recent form — Sheffield Utd
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep | L | 0-1 | Wolves (H) | — |
| 08 Sep | W | 2-1 | Blackburn (A) | 0.5 - 1.6 |
| 05 Sep | L | 1-3 | Norwich (H) | 0.8 - 3.0 |
| 01 Sep | W | 3-2 | Bolton (H) | 2.2 - 1.9 |
| 29 Aug | D | 2-2 | Cardiff (A) | 1.3 - 2.2 |
| 22 Aug | D | 0-0 | Swansea (A) | 0.6 - 0.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | Championship | 2026/27 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 1.429 | 11–11 | WDWWL |
| Sheffield Utd | Championship | 2026/27 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 1.286 | 8–9 | LWLWD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-0-1 | 2.0 / 0.7 | 2 |
| Sheffield Utd | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-2-0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Stoke City 2 wins, 2 draws, Sheffield Utd 6 wins — 2.9 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 25 | Stoke City | 1-2 | Sheffield Utd |
| 06 Dec 25 | Sheffield Utd | 4-0 | Stoke City |