Fixture · Premier League · Sat 19 Sep 2026, 12:30 BST
Tottenham
v Aston Villa
The model's read
Tottenham
39%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Aston Villa
31%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Tottenham or draw | 68.7% |
| Double chance Aston Villa or draw | 60.6% |
| Double chance either team | 70.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% |
| Tottenham over 1.5 team goals | 39.1% |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals | 33.0% |
| Tottenham clean sheet | 30.7% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 25.9% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.0% · 1-0 9.5% · 0-0 9.2% · 2-1 8.6% · 0-1 8.1%
Model readiness. Tottenham has played 4 league games this season, Aston Villa 5 league games. Until 6, a club's rating still leans on last season's data, so read early-season calls with a raised eyebrow — it is the model's most documented weakness (the fix) and it is split out on the record.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
The market’s read
Tottenham
47%
market implied · price 1.99
Draw
27%
market implied · price 3.56
Aston Villa
26%
market implied · price 3.60
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Tottenham or draw | 1.28 | 73.7% | 68.7% | -5.0 |
| Double chance Aston Villa or draw | 1.80 | 52.2% | 60.6% | +8.4 |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.1% | 70.8% | -3.3 |
| Draw no bet — Tottenham | 1.44 | 64.4% | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Aston Villa | 2.60 | 35.6% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | 75.3% | 73.1% | -2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 53.4% | 46.4% | -7.1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.90 | 32.4% | 24.9% | -7.5 |
| Both teams to score | 1.64 | 56.8% | 52.6% | -4.2 |
| Tottenham over 1.5 team goals | 1.88 | 49.8% | 39.1% | -10.7 |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals | 2.76 | 34.0% | 33.0% | -1.0 |
| Tottenham clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | 30.7% | -0.5 |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | 25.9% | +7.0 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.52 · 2-1 8.22 · 1-0 8.24 · 2-0 10.14 · 0-1 11.68
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-16 08:01 UTC. Refreshed each morning while the fixture is inside the four-day odds window.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked. Where the model column disagrees with the market, that is an observation, not advice — the model’s record, wins and losses alike, is on the record.
Where the model disagrees with the market
From the 16 Sep odds scan. Each line cleared the same two numeric bars — at least a 4-point gap between the model’s probability and the market’s margin-free price, at odds of 1.50 or better.
- Tottenham under 1.0 goals — the market’s price of 3.40 implies a 28% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 40%. A 13-point disagreement.
- Tottenham under 1.5 goals — the market’s price of 1.86 implies a 50% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 61%. An 11-point disagreement.
- under 3.0 goals — the market’s price of 1.59 implies a 59% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 69%. A 10-point disagreement.
- Aston Villa +0.5 on the Asian handicap — the market’s price of 1.86 implies a 52% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 61%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Aston Villa, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.69 implies a 35% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 44%. A 9-point disagreement.
- Aston Villa, draw no bet — the market’s price of 2.60 implies a 36% chance once the bookmaker’s margin comes out; the model’s scoreline grid makes it 44%. A 9-point disagreement.
8 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
Disagreement is an observation, not advice. Three seasons of testing
say the model has a small skill against the closing price and no profit edge —
the market wins on money often enough that most of these gaps will not pay. The
strongest disagreements are logged automatically to the record
before kick-off and settled in public, losses included. Nothing is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Tottenham
- Tottenham have failed to score in their last 4 league games.
- Tottenham are winless in their last 4 league games (D2 L2).
Aston Villa
- Aston Villa are winless in their last 4 league games (D1 L3).
Players in form
- A. Kinský has made 9 saves in 4 league games this season.
- Z. Suzuki has made 10 saves in 4 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form — Tottenham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | D | 0-0 | Everton (H) | — |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Nottingham Forest (A) | 1.1 - 0.9 |
| 29 Aug | L | 0-2 | Newcastle (H) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 22 Aug | L | 0-3 | Brentford (A) | 0.5 - 4.0 |
| 24 May | W | 1-0 | Everton (H) | 1.1 - 0.4 |
| 19 May | L | 1-2 | Chelsea (A) | 1.7 - 0.6 |
Recent form — Aston Villa
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep | L | 1-2 | Nottingham Forest (H) | — |
| 08 Sep | W | 3-2 | Club Brugge KV (A) | 3.2 - 1.5 |
| 05 Sep | D | 0-0 | Hull City (A) | 1.9 - 0.6 |
| 31 Aug | L | 0-1 | Arsenal (H) | 0.3 - 1.1 |
| 23 Aug | L | 0-4 | Brighton (A) | 0.3 - 3.6 |
| 24 May | W | 2-1 | Manchester City (A) | 1.8 - 1.3 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Tottenham
-0.98
xG diff/game · 0.88 for, 1.87 against
Aston Villa
-0.90
xG diff/game · 0.85 for, 1.75 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | Premier League | 2026/27 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0–5 | DDLL |
| Aston Villa | Premier League | 2026/27 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 1–7 | LDLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | home | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 0.0 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Aston Villa | away | Premier League | 2026/27 | 0-1-1 | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Tottenham 3 wins, 0 draws, Aston Villa 7 wins — 3.1 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Aston Villa | 1-2 | Tottenham |
| 19 Oct 25 | Tottenham | 1-2 | Aston Villa |