Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.56–1.16.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Tottenham to win (41%); it finished with Aston Villa to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 30% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Tottenham created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–1.2 and the shot count agreed (20–15, 7–6 on target). Tottenham got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 9) and Tottenham held 64% of the ball. Aston Villa's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.2 xG, 6 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 2–3 flatters Aston Villa — on chances created, Tottenham shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Tottenham or draw | 1.27 | 74.9% | +1.3 pts |
| Double chance Aston Villa or draw | 1.85 | 51.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 73.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Tottenham | 1.40 | 66.4% | +2.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Aston Villa | 2.77 | 33.6% | -2.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 77.3% | +2.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55.2% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.68 | 34.8% | +2.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 57.5% | +0.7 pts |
| Tottenham over 1.5 team goals | 1.81 | 52.0% | +2.2 pts |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals | 2.76 | 34.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Tottenham clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.74 · 2-1 8.18 · 1-0 8.50 · 2-0 9.96 · 2-2 11.79
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-09-19 11:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Aston Villa | 1-2 | Tottenham |
| 19 Oct 25 | Tottenham | 1-2 | Aston Villa |